TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.50×

LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 12:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

12:40p

+11 ↑

1:40p

+11 ↑

2:40p

+10 ↑

3:40p

+11 ↑

4:40p

the 1:40p window peaks +11

Best of game Max Muncy conv 34 · vs Singer ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 46 · vs Wrobleski → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 92

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — B ●●●●●

2 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●●○○

FADE Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 55

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — B ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

3 Dane Myers — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 33.4% · 14D pace 58.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.234 · 94.7 · 12.5% 58.3% 33.4% F B O B 71

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.239 · 90.6 · 11.2% 33.3% 33.8% F B O B 70

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Singer Edge — 0.146 · 88.8 · 7.9% 30.8% 17.1% F B O C 52

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Singer — 0.180 · 90.2 · 8.7% 23.1% 20.1% F B O C 56

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.218 · 88.4 · 10.8% 0.0% 27.7% F B O C 54

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Singer — 0.164 · 90.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 19.6% F B O C 50

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.171 · 91.1 · 10.9% 9.1% 9.9% F B O C 52

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Wrobleski — 0.198 · 88.4 · 9.7% 0.0% 15.7% F B O C 53

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.202 · 90.2 · 10.9% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Singer Edge — 0.093 · 89.5 · 7.5% 25.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· CIN Dane Myers vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.117 · 89.3 · 6.2% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 41

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.155 · 88.3 · 9.5% 0.0% 18.8% F B O D 48

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 7.0% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 45

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.151 · 89.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 49

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brady Singer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Justin Wrobleski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Freeland Cruz Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 71

Max Muncy — · 70

Mookie Betts — · 56

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph out 86°F open

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

12:40p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

1:40p · peak

+11

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

2:40p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

87°F

3:40p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

89°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 86°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 70 B — COOL 3 0.239 90.6 11.2% 26.4%vs RHP 410 21.9% 33.3% 33.8% 48

2 Mookie Betts 56 C — WARM 24 0.180 90.2 8.7% 17.6%vs RHP 389 12.8% 23.1% 20.1% 41

3 Kyle Tucker 52 C — WARM 39 0.146 88.8 7.9% 11.0%vs RHP 391 9.2% 30.8% 17.1% 35

4 Teoscar Hernandez 50 C — HOT 44 0.164 90.4 10.1% 13.2%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 29

5 Freddie Freeman 49 D — COOL 55 0.151 89.4 8.8% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.5% 0.0% 10.9% 25

6 Tommy Edman 45 D — COOL 69 0.127 87.4 7.0% 7.0%vs RHP 396 8.0% 8.3% 8.5% 35

7 Alex Freeland 43 D — · 80 0.093 89.5 7.5% 9.7%vs RHP 373 3.8% 25.0% 8.9% 21

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 71 B — HOT 2 0.234 94.7 12.5% 41.7%vs LHP 404 18.9% 58.3% 33.4% 32

2 Sal Stewart 57 C — COOL 23 0.202 90.2 10.9% 27.6%vs LHP 397 16.8% 0.0% 15.1% 33

3 Eugenio Suarez 54 C — WARM 29 0.218 88.4 10.8% 28.6%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 26

4 Jj Bleday 53 C — COOL 33 0.198 88.4 9.7% 19.2%vs LHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 15.7% 25

5 Tyler Stephenson 52 C — · 40 0.171 91.1 10.9% 8.0%vs LHP 392 9.9% 9.1% 9.9% 26

6 Matt Mclain 48 D — · 56 0.155 88.3 9.5% 24.0%vs LHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 18.8% 18

7 Dane Myers 41 D — WARM 87 0.117 89.3 6.2% 14.3%vs LHP 384 7.2% 11.1% 8.4% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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