TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.81×

MIN @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 5 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:38p

-2 ↑

7:38p

-2 ↑

8:38p

-3 ↑

9:38p

-4 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at -1

Best of game Zach Neto conv 21 · vs Bradley ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 23 · vs Ureña → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 45

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●●○○

3 Mike Trout — D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 12

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●●○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

3 Kody Clemens — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 17.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.166 · 87.7 · 6.6% 33.3% 12.9% F B O D 38

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Bradley — 0.200 · 89.7 · 10.2% 25.0% 17.1% F B O D 49

· MIN Josh Bell vs Ureña Edge — 0.169 · 89.8 · 7.6% 27.3% 13.7% F B O D 40

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Bradley Edge — 0.155 · 88.6 · 8.7% 25.0% 14.8% F B O D 40

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.229 · 92.2 · 8.3% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 47

· LAA Mike Trout vs Bradley — 0.182 · 90.1 · 12.0% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 46

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Ureña Edge — 0.180 · 88.1 · 5.0% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 36

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Bradley — 0.143 · 87.7 · 7.9% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 35

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Ureña — 0.158 · 89.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Bradley — 0.113 · 87.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.089 · 87.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 26

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Ureña — 0.109 · 85.5 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.097 · 89.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 25

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Ureña — 0.088 · 87.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walbert Ureña — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Taj Bradley — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Larnach Neto Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 5 mph out 75°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

6:38p · peak

-2

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

7:38p

-2

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

8:38p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

9:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

70°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.81× 75°F, wind 5 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 47 D — COOL 60 0.229 92.2 8.3% 21.2%vs RHP 390 18.1% 16.7% 12.8% 35

2 Josh Bell 40 D — WARM 88 0.169 89.8 7.6% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.3% 27.3% 13.7% 33

3 Trevor Larnach 38 D — COOL 105 0.166 87.7 6.6% 17.2%vs RHP 389 10.5% 33.3% 12.9% 13

4 Royce Lewis 37 D — COOL 112 0.158 89.8 8.1% 15.4%vs RHP 402 13.1% 0.0% 7.8% 30

5 Brooks Lee 36 D — WARM 116 0.180 88.1 5.0% 20.4%vs RHP 374 15.8% 9.1% 8.6% 33

6 Victor Caratini 25 D — COOL 134 0.097 89.6 6.2% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 11

7 Luke Keaschall 25 D — COOL 136 0.109 85.5 4.5% 9.6%vs RHP 378 6.8% 0.0% 6.0% 42

8 Austin Martin 23 D — COOL 139 0.088 87.0 4.2% 4.0%vs RHP 394 2.9% 0.0% 5.4% 9

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 49 D — · 53 0.200 89.7 10.2% 19.1%vs RHP 404 16.7% 25.0% 17.1% 32

2 Mike Trout 46 D — · 63 0.182 90.1 12.0% 22.2%vs RHP 409 13.1% 8.3% 9.6% 25

3 Josh Lowe 40 D — WARM 90 0.155 88.6 8.7% 18.6%vs RHP 394 10.5% 25.0% 14.8% 11

4 Vaughn Grissom 35 D — COOL 118 0.143 87.7 7.9% 20.8%vs RHP 388 9.4% 8.3% 7.4% 32

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D — WARM 129 0.113 87.3 7.6% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.7% 0.0% 7.1% 6

6 Wade Meckler 26 D — COOL 133 0.089 87.0 5.2% 8.6%vs RHP 396 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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