TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.27×

PHI @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:15p

+6 ↑

8:15p

+6 ↑

9:15p

+6 ↑

10:15p

+5 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +7

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 30 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 38 · vs McLean → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 82

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 34.5% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs McLean Edge — 0.280 · 92.4 · 10.6% 41.7% 34.5% F B O C+ 67

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Nola Edge — 0.208 · 91.2 · 9.2% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C 57

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.247 · 92.5 · 11.3% 16.7% 19.8% F B O C+ 62

· PHI Bryce Harper vs McLean Edge — 0.225 · 90.5 · 8.6% 8.3% 17.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Nola Edge — 0.143 · 88.7 · 7.9% 16.7% 11.4% F B O D 45

· NYM Brett Baty vs Nola Edge — 0.134 · 90.2 · 9.7% 12.5% 14.9% F B O D 45

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Nola — 0.128 · 89.6 · 7.8% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 43

· PHI Trea Turner vs McLean — 0.142 · 88.3 · 6.7% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 40

· NYM Jared Young HOT vs Nola Edge — 0.163 · 90.0 · 8.1% 12.5% 11.4% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Nola — 0.164 · 90.4 · 11.8% 0.0% 23.4% F B O D 48

· PHI Justin Crawford vs McLean Edge — 0.091 · 87.2 · 3.2% 12.5% 7.0% F B O D 28

· PHI Alec Bohm vs McLean — 0.140 · 90.6 · 6.4% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 38

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Nola Edge — 0.126 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 39

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs McLean Edge — 0.148 · 89.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Nola — 0.124 · 86.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs McLean — 0.132 · 89.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· PHI Bryson Stott vs McLean Edge — 0.139 · 89.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Aaron Nola — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Soto Lindor Baty Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 67

Francisco Lindor — · 57

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph out 78°F open

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

7:15p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 78°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 67 C+ — · 4 0.280 92.4 10.6% 42.2%vs RHP 403 23.9% 41.7% 34.5% 33

2 Bryce Harper 52 C — · 38 0.225 90.5 8.6% 35.8%vs RHP 403 17.7% 8.3% 17.8% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 40 D — · 93 0.148 89.2 7.4% 17.7%vs RHP 391 10.5% 0.0% 9.7% 20

4 Trea Turner 40 D — · 96 0.142 88.3 6.7% 19.3%vs RHP 390 12.6% 16.7% 8.8% 41

5 Alec Bohm 38 D — · 109 0.140 90.6 6.4% 12.5%vs RHP 394 10.1% 9.1% 7.9% 31

6 Bryson Stott 36 D — · 117 0.139 89.2 6.3% 9.1%vs RHP 393 7.1% 0.0% 8.0% 28

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D — WARM 123 0.132 89.8 6.3% 18.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 22

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — WARM 130 0.091 87.2 3.2% 4.2%vs RHP 395 2.7% 12.5% 7.0% 22

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.17 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 62 C+ — COOL 10 0.247 92.5 11.3% 31.2%vs RHP 401 20.4% 16.7% 19.8% 42

2 Francisco Lindor 57 C — · 19 0.208 91.2 9.2% 22.4%vs RHP 390 16.4% 33.3% 25.8% 38

3 Francisco Alvarez 48 D — WARM 57 0.164 90.4 11.8% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 20

4 Brett Baty 45 D — WARM 65 0.134 90.2 9.7% 13.9%vs RHP 396 7.0% 12.5% 14.9% 22

5 Jared Young 45 D — HOT 67 0.163 90.0 8.1% 18.4%vs RHP 396 7.1% 12.5% 11.4% 31

6 Carson Benge 45 D — WARM 68 0.143 88.7 7.9% 14.8%vs RHP 395 11.0% 16.7% 11.4% 34

7 Bo Bichette 43 D — · 79 0.128 89.6 7.8% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.2% 16.7% 9.1% 40

8 Marcus Semien 40 D — WARM 94 0.124 86.7 7.5% 13.4%vs RHP 391 9.6% 0.0% 9.3% 40

9 A.J. Ewing 39 D — · 98 0.126 89.4 8.2% 15.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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