TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.24×

KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph cross 83°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:15p

+3 ↑

7:15p

+3 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+3 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at +4

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 28 · vs Proxy ⟷ Cam Smith conv 26 · vs Lugo → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK HOU Bullpen Proxy · HOU

leak 57

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 39

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 26.2% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Proxy — 0.220 · 91.4 · 12.2% 30.0% 26.2% F B O C+ 68

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Lugo — 0.184 · 89.0 · 9.3% 30.0% 22.7% F B O C 57

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Lugo — 0.172 · 86.2 · 6.0% 25.0% 20.3% F B O C 51

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Proxy — 0.149 · 89.8 · 8.5% 27.3% 16.2% F B O C 53

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Lugo — 0.162 · 89.0 · 6.8% 20.0% 16.1% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.284 · 94.2 · 11.0% 0.0% 30.6% F B O C+ 64

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Lugo — 0.192 · 88.3 · 7.0% 8.3% 19.5% F B O C 53

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Lugo — 0.190 · 88.8 · 8.3% 8.3% 14.2% F B O C 54

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Proxy — 0.207 · 93.1 · 13.7% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C+ 64

· KC Bobby Witt vs Proxy — 0.166 · 92.3 · 11.8% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Proxy — 0.161 · 89.6 · 5.7% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Lugo — 0.118 · 85.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 37

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Lugo — 0.149 · 85.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· KC Salvador Perez vs Proxy — 0.149 · 89.1 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 48

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Proxy — 0.142 · 86.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Proxy — 0.113 · 88.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for HOU Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Seth Lugo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Alvarez Smith Peña Paredes Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Carter Jensen — · 68

Cam Smith — · 57

Isaac Paredes — · 51

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.12× Wind 4 mph cross 83°F retractable

↑

4 mph · cross

83°F

6:15p · peak

↑

2 mph · in

80°F

7:15p

↑

2 mph · in

80°F

8:15p

↑

2 mph · in

80°F

9:15p

↑

2 mph · in

79°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 83°F, wind 4 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs HOU Bullpen Proxy 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 68 C+ — WARM 6 0.220 91.4 12.2% 15.0% 399 17.4% 30.0% 26.2% 29

2 Jac Caglianone 64 C+ — COOL 12 0.207 93.1 13.7% 25.3% 416 14.2% 0.0% 16.5% 10

3 Bobby Witt 54 C — WARM 43 0.166 92.3 11.8% 11.5% 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 34

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 53 C — WARM 49 0.149 89.8 8.5% 8.8% 396 11.9% 27.3% 16.2% 36

5 Salvador Perez 48 D — WARM 71 0.149 89.1 10.1% 11.7% 405 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 40

6 Michael Massey 47 D — COOL 77 0.161 89.6 5.7% 10.6% 399 7.8% 9.1% 10.7% 35

7 Nick Loftin 42 D — COOL 104 0.142 86.8 4.2% 7.0% 397 8.5% 0.0% 8.9% 27

8 Isaac Collins 40 D — COOL 114 0.113 88.3 5.1% 5.3% 394 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% 23

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 64 C+ — COOL 7 0.284 94.2 11.0% 24.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 30.6% 24

2 Cam Smith 57 C — COOL 20 0.184 89.0 9.3% 21.7%vs RHP 410 13.6% 30.0% 22.7% 26

3 Christian Walker 54 C — COOL 32 0.190 88.8 8.3% 23.3%vs RHP 393 16.3% 8.3% 14.2% 34

4 Jeremy Peña 53 C — COOL 35 0.192 88.3 7.0% 27.3%vs RHP 387 15.4% 8.3% 19.5% 31

5 Isaac Paredes 51 C — · 41 0.172 86.2 6.0% 17.8%vs RHP 377 13.1% 25.0% 20.3% 33

6 Yainer Diaz 50 C — HOT 47 0.162 89.0 6.8% 31.2%vs RHP 391 11.3% 20.0% 16.1% 33

7 Jose Altuve 41 D — COOL 84 0.149 85.6 5.9% 18.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 42

8 Christian Vazquez 37 D — COOL 110 0.118 85.9 4.0% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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