TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.12×

SD @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-4 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

+2 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 25 · vs King ⟷ Manny Machado conv 28 · vs Gordon → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 72

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●●○○

FADE Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 52

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 28.0% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Gordon — 0.192 · 90.4 · 10.0% 33.3% 22.6% F B O C 58

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs King — 0.284 · 90.1 · 11.2% 22.2% 28.0% F B O C+ 67

· COL Mickey Moniak vs King Edge — 0.245 · 89.4 · 9.0% 14.3% 21.4% F B O C 57

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Gordon Edge — 0.186 · 91.4 · 11.3% 16.7% 18.1% F B O C 56

· SD Ty France vs Gordon — 0.213 · 92.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs King Edge — 0.201 · 87.4 · 6.6% 25.0% 21.2% F B O D 49

· COL Kyle Karros vs King — 0.166 · 89.3 · 8.4% 25.0% 17.9% F B O D 49

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs King — 0.123 · 87.5 · 7.4% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 40

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Gordon — 0.176 · 93.0 · 11.2% 0.0% 18.6% F B O D 49

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.076 · 87.0 · 5.3% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 33

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs King Edge — 0.187 · 85.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· COL Tj Rumfield vs King Edge — 0.155 · 84.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Gordon — 0.112 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Gordon — 0.099 · 89.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston vs King Edge — 0.117 · 89.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Gordon — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael King — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Manny Machado — · 58

Hunter Goodman — · 67

Cole Carrigg — · 49

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 4 mph in 78°F open

-3

↑

4 mph · in

76°F

1:10p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

2:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

77°F

3:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

74°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 78°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 58 C — WARM 16 0.192 90.4 10.0% 26.7%vs RHP 397 17.9% 33.3% 22.6% 38

2 Jackson Merrill 56 C — WARM 26 0.186 91.4 11.3% 20.6%vs RHP 410 16.0% 16.7% 18.1% 43

3 Ty France 54 C — · 31 0.213 92.0 10.0% 25.4%vs RHP 390 14.9% 0.0% 14.7% 27

4 Fernando Tatis 49 D — · 50 0.176 93.0 11.2% 17.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 40

5 Xander Bogaerts 38 D — WARM 108 0.099 89.3 7.5% 14.9%vs RHP 400 7.0% 0.0% 8.0% 33

6 Freddy Fermin 37 D — WARM 111 0.112 87.7 6.3% 6.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 8.7% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 33 D — COOL 125 0.076 87.0 5.3% 9.1%vs RHP 382 3.0% 9.1% 7.7% 33

vs Michael King · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 5 0.284 90.1 11.2% 35.5%vs RHP 408 23.6% 22.2% 28.0% 28

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C — WARM 21 0.245 89.4 9.0% 22.9%vs RHP 416 16.5% 14.3% 21.4% 16

3 Cole Carrigg 49 D — WARM 51 0.201 87.4 6.6% 14.7%vs RHP 405 10.6% 25.0% 21.2% 33

4 Kyle Karros 49 D — WARM 52 0.166 89.3 8.4% 19.1%vs RHP 418 11.7% 25.0% 17.9% 25

5 Jake Mccarthy 44 D — WARM 72 0.187 85.5 6.8% 15.5%vs RHP 415 10.0% 0.0% 11.8% 43

6 Tj Rumfield 40 D — · 89 0.155 84.2 6.4% 12.4%vs RHP 412 10.0% 0.0% 9.4% 35

7 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D — COOL 97 0.123 87.5 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.8% 11.1% 8.3% 20

8 Troy Johnston 34 D — WARM 122 0.117 89.7 4.4% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 6.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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