TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

BAL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:15p

-8 ↑

2:15p

-9 ↑

3:15p

-10 ↑

4:15p

-11 ↑

5:15p

best window is early — 1:15p at -7

Best of game Nolan Gorman conv 28 · vs Rogers ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 36 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 74

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Gorman — D ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●●●●○

3 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 43

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser — D ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 21.9% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Proxy — 0.240 · 94.1 · 13.9% 50.0% 21.9% F B O C+ 63

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.217 · 92.4 · 9.7% 30.8% 23.1% F B O C 51

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Proxy — 0.222 · 92.2 · 12.4% 20.0% 19.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Rogers — 0.134 · 89.3 · 8.0% 50.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Proxy — 0.149 · 87.3 · 11.2% 42.9% 12.6% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson vs Rogers — 0.193 · 92.2 · 8.9% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 43

· STL José Fermín vs Rogers Edge — 0.124 · 86.6 · 4.3% 12.5% 6.7% F B O D 28

· STL Nathan Church vs Rogers — 0.133 · 85.9 · 6.6% 12.5% 5.9% F B O D 32

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Proxy — 0.203 · 91.1 · 13.2% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 49

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Proxy — 0.171 · 89.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% F B O D 39

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Proxy — 0.135 · 87.9 · 4.1% 9.1% 6.0% F B O D 29

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.135 · 89.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 28

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Proxy — 0.121 · 87.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Rogers — 0.131 · 89.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 65.2% ← leak OFF 21.8% BRK 13.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.1% 15.4% 12.1% 13.5% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L

12.1% 10.5% 10.7% 11.3% D 43 —

Nolan Gorman L

13.5% 6.5% 3.4% 9.7% D 36 —

Nathan Church L

7.3% 4.3% 7.2% 6.5% D 32 —

Jj Wetherholt L

10.4% 1.8% 3.9% 7.5% D 31 —

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.2% 6.5% 4.4% 5.6% D 28 —

José Fermín R Edge

3.6% 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.2% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Walker Gorman

Legend

attack side — vs Rogers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Alonso — · 63

Jordan Walker — · 51

Coby Mayo — · 52

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph cross 85°F open

-7

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

1:15p · peak

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

2:15p

-9

↑

8 mph · cross

84°F

3:15p

-10

↑

8 mph · in

85°F

4:15p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

84°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 85°F, wind 8 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 63 C+ — · 8 0.240 94.1 13.9% 24.1% 402 22.0% 50.0% 21.9% 39

2 Coby Mayo 52 C — WARM 26 0.222 92.2 12.4% 18.5% 411 16.2% 20.0% 19.0% 23

3 Samuel Basallo 49 D — COOL 34 0.203 91.1 13.2% 25.0% 399 15.4% 0.0% 17.2% 13

4 Colton Cowser 45 D — WARM 51 0.149 87.3 11.2% 17.4% 414 16.2% 42.9% 12.6% 19

5 Gunnar Henderson 39 D — COOL 75 0.171 89.8 7.1% 15.5% 391 14.6% 8.3% 8.3% 37

6 Jackson Holliday 30 D — COOL 97 0.121 87.3 6.7% 10.5% 388 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% 47

7 Leody Taveras 29 D — · 99 0.135 87.9 4.1% 9.0% 405 5.3% 9.1% 6.0% 37

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C — COOL 16 0.217 92.4 9.7% 34.6%vs LHP 406 18.2% 30.8% 23.1% 40

2 Alec Burleson 43 D — WARM 46 0.193 92.2 8.9% 9.1%vs LHP 405 15.0% 16.7% 7.8% 40

3 Nolan Gorman 36 D — WARM 73 0.134 89.3 8.0% 12.5%vs LHP 404 10.0% 50.0% 7.0% 4

4 Nathan Church 32 D — · 83 0.133 85.9 6.6% 16.7%vs LHP 384 8.8% 12.5% 5.9% 25

5 Jj Wetherholt 31 D — WARM 84 0.131 89.9 7.2% 11.8%vs LHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 5.5% 41

6 Ivan Herrera 28 D — COOL 91 0.135 89.2 6.3% 24.0%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 32

7 José Fermín 28 D — WARM 93 0.124 86.6 4.3% 14.8%vs LHP 390 6.6% 12.5% 6.7% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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