TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.69×

COL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 7 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

1:05p

+16 ↑

2:05p

+14 ↑

3:05p

+12 ↑

4:05p

+10 ↑

5:05p

best window is early — 2:05p at +16

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 56 · vs Irvin ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 14 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +255 A ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Willi Castro +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 29

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +475 D ●●○○○

2 Keibert Ruiz +700 D ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams +330 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 66.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Irvin +255 0.298 · 90.6 · 13.5% 66.7% 45.6% F B O A 80

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Irvin Edge +305 0.262 · 89.6 · 10.6% 18.2% 28.1% F B O C+ 68

· COL Willi Castro vs Irvin Edge +475 0.162 · 87.9 · 9.7% 16.7% 16.3% F B O C 56

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Hughes Edge +330 0.246 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 20.1% F B O C 58

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Irvin Edge +850 0.186 · 85.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Hughes Edge +475 0.168 · 88.5 · 6.7% 15.4% 11.8% F B O D 49

· COL Troy Johnston vs Irvin Edge +700 0.119 · 89.6 · 4.8% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 43

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Irvin +575 0.127 · 87.4 · 8.6% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 49

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Hughes Edge +700 0.160 · 88.2 · 5.1% 12.5% 10.1% F B O D 45

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Irvin Edge +575 0.152 · 83.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 47

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Hughes — 0.149 · 88.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Hughes +390 0.148 · 90.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 48

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 1.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 8.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

19.3% 16.5% 8.8% 17.0% A 80 +255

Neutral · 3

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.1% 20.0% 1.9% 9.8% C+ 68 +305

Willi Castro S Edge

10.9% 6.7% 5.0% 8.5% C 56 +475

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 2.3% 5.8% 5.2% C 52 +850

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.6% 7.3% 6.7% 6.8% D 49 +575

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.4% 1.8% 5.3% 4.3% D 47 +575

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 2.2% D 43 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.5% BRK 27.4% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.5% 9.1% 11.8% 10.2% C 58 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.4% 13.0% 3.1% 8.5% D 49 +475

Dylan Crews R

7.1% 18.6% 9.5% 9.6% D 48 +390

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.0% 4.4% 2.1% 4.8% D 45 +700

Jacob Young R

8.7% 3.5% 2.9% 6.5% D 44 —

100

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Irvin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +255 · 80

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 7 mph out 86°F open

+15

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

1:05p

+16

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

2:05p · peak

+14

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

3:05p

+12

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

4:05p

+10

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.69× 86°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 80 A +255 WARM 1 0.298 90.6 13.5% 39.7%vs RHP 410 25.0% 66.7% 45.6% 8

2 Mickey Moniak 68 C+ +305 WARM 2 0.262 89.6 10.6% 22.8%vs RHP 415 17.6% 18.2% 28.1% 30

3 Willi Castro 56 C +475 · 12 0.162 87.9 9.7% 17.5%vs RHP 409 11.7% 16.7% 16.3% 32

4 Jake Mccarthy 52 C +850 COOL 15 0.186 85.0 7.5% 14.8%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 14.3% 39

5 Ezequiel Tovar 49 D +575 WARM 24 0.127 87.4 8.6% 15.9%vs RHP 409 8.0% 11.1% 12.0% 19

6 Tj Rumfield 47 D +575 · 30 0.152 83.8 7.0% 14.1%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 11.6% 30

7 Troy Johnston 43 D +700 WARM 47 0.119 89.6 4.8% 6.5%vs RHP 415 2.2% 14.3% 9.4% 19

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 58 C +330 COOL 10 0.246 89.5 7.3% 29.5%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 20.1% 26

2 Daylen Lile 49 D +475 · 25 0.168 88.5 6.7% 13.5%vs RHP 402 11.0% 15.4% 11.8% 39

3 Dylan Crews 48 D +390 · 29 0.148 90.6 7.3% 11.9%vs RHP 407 14.7% 0.0% 10.4% 31

4 Keibert Ruiz 45 D +700 COOL 39 0.160 88.2 5.1% 8.5%vs RHP 378 9.5% 12.5% 10.1% 27

5 Jacob Young 44 D — COOL 44 0.149 88.0 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 10.6% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 100 0.033 85.0 1.3% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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