TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.18×

LAD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 4 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:15p

-4 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

+0 ↑

10:15p

+1 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 11:15p window peaks +1

Best of game Matt Olson conv 20 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 41 · vs Sale → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 68

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +400 C+ ●●●○○

2 Drake Baldwin +575 C ●●○○○

3 Michael Harris — D ●○○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 34

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 52.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Sale — 0.248 · 90.6 · 8.7% 52.6% 29.3% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Sale +400 0.258 · 93.5 · 9.6% 16.7% 30.8% F B O C+ 62

· ATL Matt Olson vs Yamamoto Edge +400 0.278 · 92.6 · 10.0% 16.7% 24.2% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Yamamoto Edge +575 0.177 · 91.8 · 9.2% 8.3% 13.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Sale Edge +575 0.166 · 90.1 · 6.5% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 42

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.195 · 90.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 45

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.173 · 90.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 43

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Yamamoto Edge +750 0.155 · 90.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 42

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +750 0.163 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· ATL Austin Riley vs Yamamoto +525 0.142 · 91.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Sale +850 0.159 · 89.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Sale Edge +500 0.144 · 89.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.123 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Sale +850 0.129 · 89.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 39.6% OFF 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Max Muncy L

16.0% 13.8% 8.5% 13.6% C+ 63 —

Shohei Ohtani L

19.4% 11.4% 15.8% 16.4% C+ 62 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R Edge

8.5% 4.2% 8.1% 7.5% D 42 +575

Freddie Freeman L

9.0% 8.1% 7.9% 8.6% D 41 +850

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

9.0% 10.0% 6.7% 8.9% D 37 +500

Kyle Tucker L

8.3% 3.0% 1.3% 5.7% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.4% ← leak OFF 26.8% BRK 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

17.8% 13.3% 12.5% 15.6% C+ 64 +400

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.8% 4.0% 19.0% 13.1% C 50 +575

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Michael Harris L Edge

7.6% 13.4% 12.9% 10.4% D 45 —

Austin Riley R

12.6% 5.3% 13.6% 12.0% D 44 +525

Ronald Acuna R

12.5% 13.3% 10.0% 12.1% D 43 —

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.4% 5.7% 7.3% 7.1% D 42 +750

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.3% 2.7% 1.6% 4.1% D 41 +750

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 2.5% 7.3% 5.5% D 38 —

Mauricio Dubon R

3.0% 4.5% 5.3% 3.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.4% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Olson

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Max Muncy — · 63

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 4 mph in 81°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · in

78°F

7:15p

-4

↑

8 mph · in

74°F

8:15p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

11:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 81°F, wind 4 mph S (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 63 C+ — · 5 0.248 90.6 8.7% 25.8%vs LHP 411 21.7% 52.6% 29.3% 48

2 Shohei Ohtani 62 C+ +400 · 6 0.258 93.5 9.6% 30.8%vs LHP 407 19.5% 16.7% 30.8% 34

3 Mookie Betts 42 D +575 COOL 50 0.166 90.1 6.5% 9.8%vs LHP 389 11.1% 8.3% 9.4% 42

4 Freddie Freeman 41 D +850 COOL 54 0.159 89.8 6.9% 12.9%vs LHP 398 10.1% 0.0% 9.6% 37

5 Teoscar Hernandez 37 D +500 · 64 0.144 89.7 7.1% 18.2%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 25

6 Kyle Tucker 36 D +850 COOL 72 0.129 89.0 5.7% 6.5%vs LHP 392 7.3% 0.0% 7.2% 37

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 64 C+ +400 · 4 0.278 92.6 10.0% 32.4%vs RHP 408 24.6% 16.7% 24.2% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 50 C +575 · 20 0.177 91.8 9.2% 24.6%vs RHP 402 15.9% 8.3% 13.2% 37

3 Michael Harris 45 D — COOL 36 0.195 90.6 8.3% 22.4%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 38

4 Austin Riley 44 D +525 WARM 42 0.142 91.4 8.8% 17.3%vs RHP 407 9.1% 0.0% 9.9% 23

5 Ronald Acuna 43 D — COOL 45 0.173 90.1 8.9% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 30

6 Mike Yastrzemski 42 D +750 WARM 48 0.155 90.8 6.8% 18.3%vs RHP 389 8.2% 0.0% 10.7% 15

7 Ozzie Albies 41 D +750 COOL 53 0.163 86.9 5.1% 12.8%vs RHP 386 13.5% 0.0% 10.5% 39

8 Dominic Smith 38 D — COOL 63 0.124 87.7 6.0% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% 8

9 Mauricio Dubon 33 D — COOL 80 0.123 86.9 5.1% 9.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.