TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.93×

KC @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 8 mph cross 75°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:07p

-7 ↑

8:07p

-9 ↑

9:07p

-11 ↑

10:07p

-13 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -6

Best of game Michael Massey conv 18 · vs Arrighetti ⟷ Nathan Lukes conv 17 · vs Cameron → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Spencer Arrighetti RHP · HOU

leak 90

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Michael Massey — D ●●●○○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jac Caglianone +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 44

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Lukes — D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C ●●○○○

3 George Springer +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Cameron Edge +390 0.207 · 90.5 · 10.0% 16.7% 15.0% F B O C 50

· — Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Arrighetti Edge +370 0.212 · 93.2 · 10.8% 11.1% 15.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Michael Massey COOL vs Arrighetti Edge — 0.167 · 89.5 · 7.0% 22.2% 14.0% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Cameron — 0.120 · 86.9 · 3.9% 22.2% 11.9% F B O D 32

· — Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Arrighetti Edge +500 0.131 · 89.4 · 7.9% 22.2% 9.7% F B O D 42

· — Carter Jensen vs Arrighetti Edge +400 0.180 · 90.8 · 9.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O D 48

· — Nick Loftin vs Arrighetti +950 0.147 · 87.1 · 5.8% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 38

· — Bobby Witt COOL vs Arrighetti — 0.169 · 92.5 · 9.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 46

· — Salvador Perez vs Arrighetti +475 0.151 · 88.8 · 8.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Cameron Edge +575 0.149 · 88.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· — Isaac Collins vs Arrighetti Edge +850 0.117 · 88.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Cameron — 0.116 · 85.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 27

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Cameron — 0.164 · 90.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 41

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Cameron Edge +950 0.117 · 84.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 28

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.092 · 90.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw vs Cameron Edge — 0.115 · 85.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.9% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

13.6% 8.8% 19.2% 12.7% C 50 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L

11.0% 18.3% 0.0% 11.4% D 41 —

George Springer R Edge

6.8% 5.4% 6.5% 6.3% D 36 +575

Nathan Lukes L

1.2% 3.4% 4.0% 2.2% D 32 —

Vladimir Guerrero R Edge

6.9% 8.7% 1.9% 6.7% D 29 —

Myles Straw R Edge

4.1% 0.0% 5.3% 3.4% D 29 —

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% D 28 +950

Andres Gimenez L

3.4% 2.1% 4.3% 3.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.9% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.4% ← leak BRK 45.9% OFF 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.5% 17.3% 11.5% 14.4% C 54 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.4% 10.9% 9.1% 10.3% D 48 +400

Bobby Witt R

12.1% 10.0% 12.2% 11.4% D 46 —

Michael Massey L Edge

7.2% 6.7% 1.7% 6.0% D 44 —

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.8% 6.3% 8.8% 7.6% D 42 +500

Salvador Perez R

13.9% 6.0% 8.5% 10.0% D 39 +475

Nick Loftin R

5.7% 1.8% 0.0% 4.1% D 38 +950

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.0% 8.3% 2.2% 5.7% D 36 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.4% usage) carries Arrighetti's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Lukes Caglianone Massey Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Arrighetti fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 8 mph cross 75°F retractable

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

73°F

7:07p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

71°F

8:07p

-9

↑

9 mph · in

70°F

9:07p

-11

↑

9 mph · in

68°F

10:07p

-13

↑

10 mph · in

67°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 75°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 50 C +390 · 19 0.207 90.5 10.0% 21.2%vs LHP 400 17.1% 16.7% 15.0% 33

2 Jesús Sánchez 41 D — · 56 0.164 90.8 9.5% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.7% 0.0% 7.0% 10

3 George Springer 36 D +575 COOL 70 0.149 88.2 7.1% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.1% 0.0% 7.4% 28

4 Nathan Lukes 32 D — WARM 81 0.120 86.9 3.9% 12.9% 381 7.8% 22.2% 11.9% 32

5 Vladimir Guerrero 29 D — COOL 88 0.092 90.1 7.3% 8.3%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 23

6 Myles Straw 29 D — WARM 89 0.115 85.7 5.1% 5.6%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 19

7 Ernie Clement 28 D +950 COOL 94 0.117 84.5 4.1% 9.5%vs LHP 376 7.3% 0.0% 6.6% 36

8 Andres Gimenez 27 D — COOL 95 0.116 85.5 5.0% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 28

vs Spencer Arrighetti · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 54 C +370 · 14 0.212 93.2 10.8% 29.4%vs RHP 417 14.7% 11.1% 15.6% 23

2 Carter Jensen 48 D +400 · 28 0.180 90.8 9.2% 16.3%vs RHP 397 14.3% 10.0% 11.4% 27

3 Bobby Witt 46 D — COOL 32 0.169 92.5 9.7% 16.4%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 33

4 Michael Massey 44 D — COOL 40 0.167 89.5 7.0% 10.1%vs RHP 399 7.7% 22.2% 14.0% 28

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 42 D +500 HOT 49 0.131 89.4 7.9% 12.7%vs RHP 402 9.4% 22.2% 9.7% 33

6 Salvador Perez 39 D +475 WARM 58 0.151 88.8 8.9% 18.4%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 32

7 Nick Loftin 38 D +950 WARM 61 0.147 87.1 5.8% 11.6%vs RHP 394 8.8% 9.1% 7.6% 26

8 Isaac Collins 36 D +850 WARM 71 0.117 88.8 6.9% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.