TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.33×

MIL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 13 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+10 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs Manaea ⟷ Carson Benge conv 21 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 95

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●○

2 Joey Ortiz +750 D ●●●○○

3 Garrett Mitchell +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 55

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carson Benge +750 D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor +500 D ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Manaea — 0.229 · 92.4 · 12.3% 20.0% 28.5% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Manaea Edge +370 0.182 · 91.8 · 11.9% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +750 0.148 · 89.3 · 5.7% 27.3% 14.2% F B O D 38

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Manaea Edge +750 0.128 · 88.6 · 6.8% 22.2% 10.5% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +500 0.189 · 91.1 · 6.4% 18.2% 12.7% F B O D 41

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Misiorowski +750 0.129 · 89.6 · 5.3% 18.2% 10.0% F B O D 34

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Manaea +750 0.154 · 92.9 · 11.7% 14.3% 11.6% F B O D 48

· MIL David Hamilton vs Manaea — 0.094 · 86.6 · 6.4% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 34

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +625 0.170 · 90.3 · 5.9% 12.5% 10.1% F B O D 37

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Manaea — 0.143 · 89.1 · 10.5% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 44

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Manaea +750 0.175 · 90.3 · 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Manaea Edge +425 0.125 · 90.2 · 9.3% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Misiorowski +575 0.166 · 90.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 36

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Misiorowski +750 0.134 · 86.6 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 32

· NYM Brett Baty vs Misiorowski Edge +850 0.117 · 90.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +850 0.116 · 89.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.6% ← leak BRK 31.1% OFF 3.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L

14.9% 12.5% 12.8% 13.9% C+ 61 —

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.2% 13.6% 5.3% 12.3% C 51 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L

15.2% 11.0% 6.1% 12.6% D 48 +750

Brice Turang L

8.7% 10.1% 1.6% 7.8% D 46 +750

Christian Yelich L

9.2% 8.7% 13.3% 9.6% D 44 —

William Contreras R Edge

8.4% 8.9% 0.0% 7.7% D 41 +425

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.2% 5.5% 0.0% 4.3% D 39 +750

David Hamilton L

3.6% 6.2% 0.0% 3.7% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 76.4% ← leak BRK 22.1% OFF 1.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.5% 7.0% 6.0% 9.5% D 41 +500

Carson Benge L Edge

6.8% 8.7% 6.2% 7.2% D 38 +750

Jared Young L Edge

6.5% 6.9% 12.9% 7.6% D 37 +625

Francisco Alvarez R

15.8% 14.9% 16.0% 15.5% D 36 +575

Bo Bichette R

5.1% 10.0% 0.0% 6.1% D 34 +750

Marcus Semien R

9.1% 1.9% 6.5% 6.4% D 32 +750

Brett Baty L Edge

8.5% 13.6% 3.9% 8.7% D 31 +850

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.8% 11.7% 0.0% 7.4% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.4% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Ortiz Lindor Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jake Bauers — · 61

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 13 mph out 76°F open

+10

↑

12 mph · out

76°F

7:10p · peak

+10

↑

11 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

↑

10 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.33× 76°F, wind 13 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 7 0.229 92.4 12.3% 24.0%vs LHP 401 19.8% 20.0% 28.5% 23

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C +370 COOL 18 0.182 91.8 11.9% 27.8%vs LHP 401 15.2% 0.0% 12.6% 33

3 Garrett Mitchell 48 D +750 COOL 27 0.154 92.9 11.7% 20.0%vs LHP 415 7.7% 14.3% 11.6% 19

4 Brice Turang 46 D +750 COOL 33 0.175 90.3 9.1% 5.6%vs LHP 407 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 25

5 Christian Yelich 44 D — WARM 43 0.143 89.1 10.5% 16.7%vs LHP 400 7.9% 11.1% 9.7% 29

6 William Contreras 41 D +425 HOT 55 0.125 90.2 9.3% 11.1%vs LHP 415 9.2% 9.1% 7.4% 41

7 Joey Ortiz 39 D +750 WARM 59 0.128 88.6 6.8% 12.5%vs LHP 391 6.9% 22.2% 10.5% 29

8 David Hamilton 34 D — · 79 0.094 86.6 6.4% 6.1% 386 4.7% 16.7% 7.5% 23

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 41 D +500 COOL 52 0.189 91.1 6.4% 16.3%vs RHP 397 13.2% 18.2% 12.7% 35

2 Carson Benge 38 D +750 COOL 62 0.148 89.3 5.7% 14.9%vs RHP 396 11.1% 27.3% 14.2% 34

3 Jared Young 37 D +625 COOL 66 0.170 90.3 5.9% 18.6%vs RHP 400 7.3% 12.5% 10.1% 32

4 Francisco Alvarez 36 D +575 COOL 69 0.166 90.1 8.3% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 14

5 Bo Bichette 34 D +750 WARM 78 0.129 89.6 5.3% 11.8%vs RHP 385 10.1% 18.2% 10.0% 32

6 Marcus Semien 32 D +750 COOL 82 0.134 86.6 5.4% 16.9%vs RHP 391 11.1% 0.0% 8.7% 29

7 Brett Baty 31 D +850 WARM 85 0.117 90.0 6.3% 12.9%vs RHP 397 6.9% 0.0% 7.2% 15

8 A.J. Ewing 28 D +850 COOL 92 0.116 89.2 5.8% 11.1%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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