TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.17×

HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 11 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+7 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

+8 ↑

11:05p

conditions build late — the 10:05p window peaks +8

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 23 · vs Cole ⟷ Ben Rice conv 29 · vs Wesneski → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 80

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +525 D ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 77

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +265 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cody Bellinger +425 D ●●●●○

3 Trent Grisham +290 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Wesneski Edge +265 0.277 · 92.2 · 10.1% 25.0% 33.1% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Wesneski Edge +290 0.197 · 90.9 · 8.3% 25.0% 24.2% F B O C 54

· HOU Christian Walker vs Cole +425 0.201 · 89.2 · 8.4% 10.0% 14.7% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Cole Edge +235 0.293 · 94.5 · 11.7% 0.0% 19.0% F B O C 59

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Wesneski — 0.200 · 86.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Wesneski Edge +425 0.165 · 89.1 · 6.5% 33.3% 17.8% F B O D 46

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Cole +525 0.188 · 88.4 · 6.6% 22.2% 24.2% F B O D 49

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Cole +750 0.160 · 87.9 · 6.5% 20.0% 20.2% F B O D 45

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Cole +525 0.165 · 85.9 · 6.4% 18.2% 12.1% F B O D 44

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Cole +575 0.175 · 89.3 · 9.5% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 49

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Cole — 0.127 · 86.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 34

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.176 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Cole +625 0.153 · 85.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 37

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Wesneski Edge +475 0.114 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Wesneski +850 0.138 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 32.5% OFF 14.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.7% 22.0% 9.6% 17.3% C 59 +235

Christian Walker R

8.0% 10.0% 13.2% 9.2% C 51 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R

5.1% 6.8% 9.5% 6.0% D 49 +525

Cam Smith R

9.2% 15.3% 16.1% 11.3% D 49 +575

Yainer Diaz R

6.8% 4.0% 6.5% 5.7% D 45 +750

Isaac Paredes R

6.8% 2.9% 1.8% 5.1% D 44 +525

Jose Altuve R

5.4% 4.6% 0.0% 4.7% D 37 +625

Christian Vazquez R

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ben Rice L Edge

17.1% 12.5% 11.9% 14.9% C+ 67 +265

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.3% 7.0% 6.8% 9.9% C 54 +290

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.8% 4.5% 8.8% 10.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L Edge

4.2% 11.4% 8.6% 6.6% D 46 +425

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.3% 13.0% 6.8% 9.1% D 45 —

Austin Wells L Edge

8.5% 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% D 39 +475

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 35 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Peña Diaz Paredes Rice Grisham Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ben Rice +265 · 67

Trent Grisham +290 · 54

Jeremy Peña +525 · 49

Yainer Diaz +750 · 45

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 11 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:05p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:05p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:05p

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

10:05p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 76°F, wind 11 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 59 C +235 COOL 9 0.293 94.5 11.7% 26.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 29

2 Christian Walker 51 C +425 · 17 0.201 89.2 8.4% 25.0%vs RHP 392 17.1% 10.0% 14.7% 29

3 Jeremy Peña 49 D +525 HOT 22 0.188 88.4 6.6% 29.2%vs RHP 384 15.3% 22.2% 24.2% 24

4 Cam Smith 49 D +575 COOL 23 0.175 89.3 9.5% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.8% 11.1% 12.0% 21

5 Yainer Diaz 45 D +750 HOT 35 0.160 87.9 6.5% 27.3%vs RHP 398 10.8% 20.0% 20.2% 18

6 Isaac Paredes 44 D +525 COOL 41 0.165 85.9 6.4% 17.4%vs RHP 377 11.9% 18.2% 12.1% 37

7 Jose Altuve 37 D +625 COOL 65 0.153 85.1 6.2% 21.1%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 30

8 Christian Vazquez 34 D — WARM 77 0.127 86.0 4.2% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 10

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 67 C+ +265 · 3 0.277 92.2 10.1% 30.5%vs RHP 394 24.8% 25.0% 33.1% 32

2 Trent Grisham 54 C +290 · 13 0.197 90.9 8.3% 21.7%vs RHP 388 14.2% 25.0% 24.2% 31

3 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 21 0.200 86.5 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 13.0% 2

4 Cody Bellinger 46 D +425 WARM 31 0.165 89.1 6.5% 11.6%vs RHP 379 9.9% 33.3% 17.8% 12

5 Jazz Chisholm 45 D — COOL 37 0.176 90.7 7.8% 21.7%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 31

6 Austin Wells 39 D +475 COOL 60 0.114 89.1 6.7% 13.6%vs RHP 387 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 20

7 Jose Caballero 35 D +850 COOL 76 0.138 83.9 5.4% 19.5%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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