TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SF

Neutral air · 1.04×

AZ @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 9 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:45p

+2 ↑

7:45p

+2 ↑

8:45p

+2 ↑

9:45p

+2 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · +2 FIT

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 36 · vs Cabrera ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 19 · vs Roupp → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Jose Cabrera RHP · AZ

leak 97

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●●●

2 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●●●○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 27

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +950 D ●●●○○

2 Gabriel Moreno +900 D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 29.6% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Cabrera Edge +390 0.240 · 92.6 · 8.8% 41.7% 29.6% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Cabrera Edge +850 0.140 · 86.5 · 5.9% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 37

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Roupp +950 0.196 · 85.0 · 5.9% 18.2% 19.1% F B O D 41

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Roupp +900 0.161 · 89.4 · 6.4% 18.2% 9.8% F B O D 37

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Roupp +950 0.155 · 90.7 · 6.7% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Roupp Edge — 0.142 · 87.5 · 4.2% 9.1% 6.6% F B O D 29

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Roupp +1000 0.123 · 87.4 · 5.7% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 30

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Roupp Edge +525 0.236 · 91.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 45

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Cabrera Edge — 0.134 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Roupp — 0.097 · 87.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 26

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.122 · 87.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Landen Roupp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jose Cabrera — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arenado Moreno Tawa Devers Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Cabrera fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +390 · 58

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 9 mph out 71°F open

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

6:45p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

7:45p

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

8:45p

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

9:45p

↑

8 mph · out

60°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 71°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 45 D +525 · 44 0.236 91.8 7.8% 16.5%vs RHP 402 13.2% 0.0% 12.0% 32

2 Nolan Arenado 41 D +950 COOL 65 0.196 85.0 5.9% 21.7%vs RHP 389 15.4% 18.2% 19.1% 26

3 Gabriel Moreno 37 D +900 WARM 78 0.161 89.4 6.4% 14.0%vs RHP 401 9.3% 18.2% 9.8% 35

4 Tim Tawa 36 D +950 WARM 81 0.155 90.7 6.7% 23.5%vs RHP 400 8.3% 16.7% 10.6% 35

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 30 D +1000 COOL 103 0.123 87.4 5.7% 10.3%vs RHP 419 4.7% 9.1% 6.5% 23

6 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D — WARM 106 0.142 87.5 4.2% 9.8%vs RHP 396 5.1% 9.1% 6.6% 42

7 Geraldo Perdomo 27 D — COOL 111 0.122 87.5 3.9% 10.1%vs RHP 383 6.8% 0.0% 6.1% 40

8 Jose Fernandez 26 D — COOL 112 0.097 87.7 4.6% 23.1%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 16

vs Jose Cabrera · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 58 C +390 WARM 7 0.240 92.6 8.8% 27.9%vs RHP 399 20.2% 41.7% 29.6% 37

2 Drew Gilbert 37 D +850 HOT 77 0.140 86.5 5.9% 15.9%vs RHP 392 6.2% 22.2% 15.1% 22

3 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — · 102 0.134 87.0 4.1% 11.6%vs RHP 382 5.8% 0.0% 8.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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