Francisco Alvarez
NYM
· 84 appearances tracked
8
HRs
9.5%
HR Rate
23.6%
Avg HR/FB
90.1
Avg EV
0.176
ISO
#4
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet.
The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
53.9%
8
Breaking
33.2%
5
Offspeed
12.9%
3
All
100%
15.4%
16
30.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
0 of 4 active
Ballpark —
Pitcher form —
Platoon —
Weather —
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
K%
30.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days
8 this season · avg 393 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Jun 30
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
—
105.2
415
Jul 16
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
—
104.4
363
Jul 24
vs LAD · Evan Phillips
—
108.9
401
HR by month
Jun
Jul
All Appearances
84 tracked · 8 HR · 27 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 26
@ WSH · Connelly Early
2
97.6
2 BIP
Sep 25
@ WSH · Andrew Alvarez
2
100.2
2 BIP
Sep 23
@ TEX · Cody Bradford
3
113.7
3 BIP
Sep 20
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
108.0
3 BIP
Sep 19
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
3
102.2
HR
3 BIP
Sep 17
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
2
73.3
2 BIP
Sep 15
vs BAL · Shane Baz
3
99.5
3 BIP
Sep 14
vs BAL · Brandon Young
3
101.2
3 BIP
Sep 13
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
2
108.6
2 BIP
Sep 11
@ NYY · Carlos Rodón
2
111.5
2 BIP
Sep 8
@ MIA · Sandy Alcantara
3
109.6
3 BIP
Sep 7
@ MIA · Eury Pérez
2
104.3
2 BIP
Sep 5
vs SF · Anthony Molina
1
65.6
1 BIP
Sep 4
vs SF · Matt Wilkinson
4
107.5
HR
4 BIP
Sep 1
@ TB · Freddy Peralta
2
103.3
2 BIP
Aug 31
@ TB · Ian Seymour
1
96.7
1 BIP
Aug 29
vs HOU · Bennett Sousa
2
98.9
2 BIP
Aug 27
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
96.2
2 BIP
Aug 26
vs MIL · Dustin May
2
88.9
2 BIP
Aug 22
@ CWS · Luis Castillo
2
106.4
2 BIP
Aug 19
vs SD · Michael King
4
90.1
4 BIP
Aug 18
vs SD · Robbie Ray
2
94.4
2 BIP
Aug 17
vs SD · Walker Buehler
1
98.9
1 BIP
Aug 15
vs WSH · Brad Lord
2
98.6
2 BIP
Aug 14
vs WSH · Andrew Alvarez
0
—
—
Aug 12
@ ATL · Tyler Mahle
1
89.5
1 BIP
Aug 11
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
0
—
—
Aug 10
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
4
111.0
4 BIP
Aug 9
@ PIT · Jared Jones
1
101.7
HR
1 BIP
Aug 8
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
94.0
3 BIP
Aug 6
@ CLE · Foster Griffin
4
101.2
4 BIP
Aug 5
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
1
71.2
1 BIP
Aug 4
@ CLE · Joey Cantillo
1
102.7
1 BIP
Aug 2
vs MIA · Sandy Alcantara
2
108.4
2 BIP
Jul 31
vs MIA · Janson Junk
2
105.4
2 BIP
Jul 30
vs MIA · Eury Pérez
1
66.1
1 BIP
Jul 29
vs ATL · ATL Bullpen Proxy
4
112.1
4 BIP
Jul 25
vs LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1
101.5
1 BIP
Jul 24
vs LAD · Roki Sasaki
2
108.9
HR
2 BIP
Jul 22
@ MIL · Logan Henderson
1
103.9
1 BIP
Jul 20
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
87.7
2 BIP
Jul 18
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
2
98.3
2 BIP
Jul 16
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
2
104.4
HR
2 BIP
Jul 11
vs BOS · BOS Bullpen Proxy
2
100.5
2 BIP
Jul 10
vs BOS · Sonny Gray
4
102.7
4 BIP
Jul 9
vs KC · Michael Wacha
2
106.9
2 BIP
Jul 8
vs KC · Steven Cruz
2
70.9
2 BIP
Jul 6
@ ATL · Reynaldo López
4
102.4
4 BIP
Jul 3
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
4
101.1
4 BIP
Jul 1
@ TOR · Braydon Fisher
1
50.8
1 BIP
Jun 30
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
2
105.2
HR
2 BIP
Jun 29
@ TOR · Trey Yesavage
3
109.0
3 BIP
Jun 28
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
2
104.0
2 BIP
Jun 27
vs PHI · Tim Mayza
2
98.4
2 BIP
Jun 24
vs CHC · Javier Assad
4
106.5
HR
4 BIP
Jun 23
vs CHC · Edward Cabrera
3
105.2
HR
3 BIP
Jun 22
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
0
—
—
May 22
@ MIA · Eury Pérez
0
—
—
May 21
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
0
—
—
May 20
@ WSH · Zack Littell
0
—
—
May 18
@ WSH · Jake Irvin
0
—
—
May 13
vs DET · Framber Valdez
0
—
—
May 12
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
2
102.5
2 BIP
May 10
@ AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
0
—
—
May 9
@ AZ · Merrill Kelly
2
89.7
2 BIP
May 8
@ AZ · Ryne Nelson
3
111.0
3 BIP
May 7
@ COL · Jose Quintana
1
69.3
1 BIP
May 6
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
4
111.7
4 BIP
May 5
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
0
—
—
May 4
@ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
2
100.2
2 BIP
May 3
@ LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
0
—
—
May 2
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
4
107.6
4 BIP
May 1
@ LAA · Walbert Urena
3
95.5
3 BIP
Apr 29
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
1
86.8
1 BIP
Apr 28
vs WSH · Zack Littell
4
102.1
4 BIP
Apr 25
vs COL · Jose Quintana
0
—
—
Apr 24
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
3
109.9
3 BIP
Apr 23
vs MIN · Joe Ryan
2
100.5
2 BIP
Apr 22
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
3
108.5
3 BIP
Apr 21
vs MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
3
91.2
3 BIP
Apr 18
@ CHC · Jameson Taillon
4
100.2
4 BIP
Apr 17
@ CHC · Edward Cabrera
3
87.7
3 BIP
Apr 10
vs ATH · J.T. Ginn
1
108.5
1 BIP
Mar 28
vs PIT · Mitch Keller
1
69.3
1 BIP
Ballpark
park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
0.50×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
8 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
4 gm
since his last HR, Sep 19
Season
8 HR
84 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 7 gaps · median 8 gm · MAD ± 4 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Common questions about Francisco Alvarez
Will Francisco Alvarez hit a home run today?
Francisco Alvarez is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 8 times in 84 scored games (about 10% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.
How often does Francisco Alvarez hit home runs?
Across 84 scored games this season, Francisco Alvarez has 8 home runs — one every 10.5 games, or about 10% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.