Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-22T11:01:17-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-22
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Braden Montgomery | Christian Scott | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.3 | 48% | 2 | 6 | #157 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Christian Scott | Fastball | +3.1 | +0.3 | 48% | 13 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +5.4 | -0.5 | 37% | 4 | 0 | #144 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.3 | 50% | 9 | 0 | #46 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.2 | 46% | 13 | 7 | #2 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.3 | 50% | 8 | 0 | #33 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.3 | 55% | 8 | 2 | #126 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.3 | 48% | 6 | 6 | #158 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.6 | -1.3 | 55% | 6 | 2 | #166 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Jared Jones | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.2 | 46% | 8 | 7 | #66 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.5 | -1.3 | 55% | 5 | 2 | #153 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Rhett Lowder | Slider | +4.4 | +1.8 | 27% | 1 | 5 | #174 | |
| · | Josh Lowe | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.3 | 50% | 3 | 0 | #79 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.3 | 55% | 6 | 2 | #171 | |
| · | Nolan Schanuel | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.3 | 50% | 2 | 0 | #184 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.3 | 55% | 1 | 2 | #206 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Dylan Cease | Fastball | +4.2 | -1.1 | 36% | 16 | 4 | #9 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.3 | 48% | 9 | 6 | #15 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Drew Anderson | Slider | +5.6 | +5.7 | 6% | 6 | 3 | #20 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Luis Castillo | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.7 | 42% | 6 | 9 | #73 | |
| · | Andrew Benintendi | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.3 | 48% | 7 | 6 | #92 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.3 | 48% | 3 | 6 | #139 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Christian Scott | Sweeper | +6.8 | -0.8 | 23% | 2 | 2 | #139 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Cody Bradford | Fastball | +0.1 | +0.3 | 50% | 4 | 0 | #146 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Drew Anderson | Changeup | +3.2 | +1.4 | 31% | 2 | 4 | #20 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.2 | 46% | 6 | 7 | #99 | |
| · | Vinnie Pasquantino | Drew Anderson | Changeup | +3.1 | +1.4 | 31% | 1 | 4 | #105 | |
| · | Oswald Peraza | Cody Bradford | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.3 | 50% | 3 | 0 | #145 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.2 | 46% | 7 | 7 | #3 | |
| · | Corbin Carroll | Rhett Lowder | Slider | +3.3 | +1.8 | 27% | 3 | 5 | #31 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.8 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.