Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-30T11:00:31-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-30
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Dominic Canzone | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +2.7 | +1.7 | 43% | 9 | 11 | #3 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Sean Burke | Fastball | +6.0 | -1.4 | 37% | 15 | 7 | #12 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Bailey Ober | Slider | +10.1 | -0.3 | 16% | 1 | 1 | #115 | |
| · | Josh Rojas | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +4.3 | +1.3 | 35% | 1 | 4 | #125 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +3.6 | +1.3 | 35% | 0 | 4 | #115 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.9 | 47% | 10 | 5 | #7 | |
| · | Jac Caglianone | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +3.2 | +1.3 | 35% | 2 | 4 | #55 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Ryan Weathers | Sweeper | +7.7 | -0.2 | 20% | 2 | 1 | #103 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.7 | 43% | 6 | 11 | #8 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Andre Pallante | Sinker | +7.9 | -0.2 | 18% | 2 | 1 | #87 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.7 | 42% | 4 | 2 | #5 | |
| · | Julio Rodríguez | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.4 | +1.7 | 43% | 5 | 11 | #20 | |
| · | Dalton Rushing | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.9 | 47% | 3 | 5 | #32 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.9 | 47% | 8 | 5 | #45 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Sean Burke | Fastball | +4.1 | -1.4 | 37% | 9 | 7 | #58 | |
| · | J.P. Crawford | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.7 | 43% | 4 | 11 | #63 | |
| · | James Wood | Grant Holmes | Slider | +3.1 | -0.2 | 36% | 8 | 5 | #1 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.9 | 47% | 6 | 5 | #73 | |
| · | Josh Naylor | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.2 | +1.7 | 43% | 5 | 11 | #75 | |
| · | Jonny Deluca | Cole Winn | Cutter | +4.8 | -0.8 | 31% | 2 | 1 | #112 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Bailey Ober | Changeup | +2.0 | +1.3 | 35% | 3 | 4 | #70 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | -0.1 | +1.7 | 43% | 4 | 11 | #24 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Andre Pallante | Splitter | +10.4 | -0.4 | 3% | 4 | 0 | #37 | |
| · | Cole Young | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | -0.1 | +1.7 | 43% | 6 | 11 | #40 | |
| · | Colt Emerson | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | -0.1 | +1.7 | 43% | 4 | 11 | #43 | |
| · | Henry Bolte | Sonny Gray | Curveball | +4.8 | +2.7 | 16% | 0 | 4 | #94 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Cole Winn | Slider | +4.3 | +1.6 | 22% | 3 | 2 | #98 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.7 | 42% | 8 | 2 | #17 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | JP Sears | Changeup | +2.2 | +3.9 | 22% | 1 | 1 | #34 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | JP Sears | Fastball | +4.2 | -3.0 | 38% | 7 | 1 | #34 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+35.1 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+23.6 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.