Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-27T11:00:21-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
7
Edges That Hit HR
23%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-27
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | George Springer | Cal Quantrill | Cutter | +9.9 | +0.2 | 32% | 3 | 2 | #49 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +9.0 | -1.3 | 32% | 2 | 1 | #143 | |
| 💥 | Bryce Harper | Christian Scott | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.1 | 51% | 8 | 2 | #19 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.1 | -1.0 | 56% | 6 | 6 | #86 | |
| 💥 | Brandon Lowe | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.0 | 56% | 8 | 6 | #45 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.1 | 51% | 8 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Cal Quantrill | Cutter | +6.7 | +0.2 | 32% | 3 | 2 | #43 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Jake Bennett | Fastball | +6.5 | -0.2 | 33% | 11 | 1 | #11 | |
| · | Masyn Winn | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +3.2 | +10.5 | 10% | 0 | 1 | #206 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Jake Bennett | Fastball | +6.4 | -0.2 | 33% | 8 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.3 | 59% | 5 | 6 | #55 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.3 | 59% | 0 | 6 | #134 | |
| · | Ryan O'Hearn | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.0 | 56% | 7 | 6 | #142 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +5.5 | +7.7 | 8% | 8 | 1 | #27 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | David Peterson | Curveball | +8.8 | +2.3 | 13% | 2 | 1 | #188 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Kai-Wei Teng | Sweeper | +6.4 | -1.0 | 34% | 1 | 3 | #131 | |
| 💥 | Ian Happ | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.8 | -1.3 | 59% | 6 | 6 | #26 | |
| 💥 | Seiya Suzuki | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.7 | -1.3 | 59% | 3 | 6 | #87 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +2.3 | +10.5 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #150 | |
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Alan Rangel | Changeup | +3.8 | +0.8 | 37% | 1 | 1 | #112 | |
| 💥 | Kerry Carpenter | Kai-Wei Teng | Changeup | +7.8 | +3.1 | 10% | 3 | 1 | #37 | |
| 💥 | Sal Stewart | Jared Jones | Fastball | +3.1 | +0.8 | 40% | 5 | 2 | #89 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Cal Quantrill | Splitter | +5.9 | +3.1 | 17% | 1 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Jared Jones | Curveball | +6.4 | +4.6 | 10% | 2 | 0 | #48 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Jared Jones | Slider | +3.8 | +1.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | #48 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 51% | 3 | 2 | #59 | |
| · | Jake Meyers | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +2.4 | -0.3 | 45% | 1 | 4 | #158 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.5 | -1.0 | 56% | 1 | 6 | #229 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Cal Quantrill | Splitter | +5.7 | +3.1 | 17% | 0 | 1 | #135 | |
| 💥 | Hao-Yu Lee | Kai-Wei Teng | Sweeper | +5.2 | -1.0 | 34% | 0 | 3 | #172 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.1 RV allowed
Kyle Freeland
+21.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.