TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.76×

KC @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-13 ↑

6:40p

-13 ↑

7:40p

-12 ↑

8:40p

-10 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 23 · vs Melton ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 27 · vs Dobnak → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 91

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas +575 D ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone — D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · SD

leak 91

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +475 C ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +350 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: Match 28.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Dobnak +500 0.265 · 89.7 · 9.2% 25.0% 28.1% F B O C 56

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Dobnak +475 0.210 · 89.8 · 10.1% 30.0% 22.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Melton +575 0.172 · 89.7 · 6.5% 30.0% 16.2% F B O D 41

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.205 · 93.0 · 9.6% 22.2% 19.8% F B O D 47

· — Riley Greene vs Dobnak Edge +350 0.185 · 91.6 · 10.1% 20.0% 17.5% F B O D 48

· KC Carter Jensen vs Melton Edge +500 0.193 · 90.8 · 7.6% 11.1% 11.2% F B O D 42

· — Colt Keith vs Dobnak Edge +700 0.144 · 89.3 · 7.6% 12.5% 8.5% F B O D 37

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Melton Edge +950 0.120 · 88.5 · 5.9% 11.1% 6.7% F B O D 30

· — Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Dobnak Edge +475 0.221 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 45

· KC Salvador Perez vs Melton +475 0.144 · 89.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 32

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Dobnak Edge +525 0.143 · 88.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 35

· — Gleyber Torres COOL vs Dobnak +950 0.110 · 85.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Melton Edge +625 0.156 · 90.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 33

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Melton Edge +500 0.117 · 88.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· — Matt Vierling vs Dobnak — 0.122 · 87.7 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· — Zach Mckinstry HOT vs Dobnak Edge +950 0.099 · 84.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.5% ← leak BRK 23.4% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.0% 16.9% 12.2% 15.1% D 47 —

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.5% 8.0% 7.9% 9.6% D 42 +500

Lane Thomas R

8.3% 2.9% 5.6% 7.0% D 41 +575

Michael Massey L Edge

8.3% 4.3% 2.6% 6.3% D 33 +625

Salvador Perez R

13.2% 6.1% 8.1% 9.7% D 32 +475

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.9% 3.6% 10.7% 7.2% D 31 +500

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 7.7% 0.0% 5.7% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.5% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.7% BRK 23.1% OFF 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.5% 11.3% 5.7% 11.4% C 56 +500

Spencer Torkelson R

16.8% 8.9% 21.1% 15.2% C 52 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

16.2% 15.3% 8.2% 14.5% D 48 +350

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

9.6% 10.8% 7.7% 9.6% D 45 +475

Colt Keith L Edge

7.6% 20.0% 4.2% 8.8% D 37 +700

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.6% 7.7% 2.0% 8.0% D 35 +525

Gleyber Torres R

10.1% 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% D 34 +950

Matt Vierling R

8.0% 2.7% 0.0% 5.2% D 32 —

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 27 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Thomas Dingler Torkelson Greene

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dillon Dingler +500 · 56

Spencer Torkelson +475 · 52

Jac Caglianone — · 47

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph in 76°F open

-13

↑

9 mph · in

76°F

6:40p

-13

↑

9 mph · in

74°F

7:40p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

8:40p

-10

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

9:40p

-8

↑

4 mph · in

67°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 76°F, wind 9 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 47 D — COOL 24 0.205 93.0 9.6% 28.9%vs RHP 416 13.3% 22.2% 19.8% 28

2 Carter Jensen 42 D +500 WARM 34 0.193 90.8 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 394 15.4% 11.1% 11.2% 24

3 Lane Thomas 41 D +575 HOT 38 0.172 89.7 6.5% 21.4%vs RHP 416 15.6% 30.0% 16.2% 26

4 Michael Massey 33 D +625 COOL 59 0.156 90.1 6.2% 9.5%vs RHP 398 6.2% 0.0% 8.2% 26

5 Salvador Perez 32 D +475 WARM 63 0.144 89.0 7.7% 18.2%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 24

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 31 D +500 WARM 66 0.117 88.7 6.6% 12.0%vs RHP 395 8.3% 0.0% 7.2% 20

7 Isaac Collins 30 D +950 COOL 68 0.120 88.5 5.9% 7.7%vs RHP 395 5.9% 11.1% 6.7% 24

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 56 C +500 COOL 8 0.265 89.7 9.2% 30.6%vs RHP 396 20.2% 25.0% 28.1% 21

2 Spencer Torkelson 52 C +475 COOL 12 0.210 89.8 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 394 17.2% 30.0% 22.8% 27

3 Riley Greene 48 D +350 WARM 18 0.185 91.6 10.1% 19.1%vs RHP 399 13.0% 20.0% 17.5% 20

4 Kerry Carpenter 45 D +475 COOL 28 0.221 89.8 8.5% 24.1%vs RHP 380 15.2% 0.0% 13.1% 18

5 Colt Keith 37 D +700 WARM 49 0.144 89.3 7.6% 14.0%vs RHP 389 7.1% 12.5% 8.5% 18

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 35 D +525 · 53 0.143 88.0 7.5% 8.3%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 31

7 Gleyber Torres 34 D +950 COOL 58 0.110 85.0 7.5% 10.3%vs RHP 388 7.0% 0.0% 8.7% 3

8 Matt Vierling 32 D — · 64 0.122 87.7 6.1% 8.1%vs RHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 6.7% 20

9 Zach Mckinstry 27 D +950 HOT 72 0.099 84.8 4.3% 8.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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