TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TOR

Playable air · 1.07×

TB @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph out 73°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

3:07p

+7 ↑

4:07p

+6 ↑

5:07p

+4 ↑

6:07p

+3 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 3:07p at +8

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 39 · vs Bieber ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 13 · vs Seymour → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 99

2.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +225 B ●●●●●

2 Nick Fortes — D ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins +400 D ●●●○○

FADE Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 57

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +305 C ●●○○○

2 George Springer +425 D ●●○○○

3 Ernie Clement +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Bieber +225 0.269 · 93.0 · 11.8% 36.4% 42.3% F B O B 70

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Seymour Edge +305 0.218 · 91.0 · 11.2% 11.1% 15.2% F B O C 55

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Bieber Edge +425 0.163 · 91.0 · 10.1% 10.0% 11.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Bieber — 0.103 · 85.7 · 5.2% 28.6% 16.2% F B O D 40

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Bieber Edge +400 0.145 · 88.0 · 6.6% 25.0% 18.1% F B O D 47

· TOR George Springer vs Seymour Edge +425 0.162 · 88.7 · 8.5% 14.3% 8.8% F B O D 44

· TB Richie Palacios vs Bieber Edge +850 0.101 · 85.8 · 6.1% 12.5% 9.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Seymour Edge +700 0.130 · 85.0 · 4.8% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 35

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Bieber +500 0.164 · 91.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 44

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Bieber — 0.079 · 87.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Bieber Edge — 0.062 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 22

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Bieber Edge +950 0.070 · 85.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.0% ← leak BRK 28.7% OFF 21.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.6% 11.7% 7.0% 13.5% B 70 +225

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.8% 11.9% 5.8% 10.1% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.4% 3.9% 9.4% 4.3% D 47 +400

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 10.5% 5.3% 7.0% D 44 +500

Nick Fortes R

3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.6% D 40 —

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.2% 2.3% 3.8% 3.7% D 38 +850

Ben Williamson R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 34 —

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 32 +950

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.0% ← leak OFF 31.0% BRK 27.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

15.5% 15.8% 9.2% 13.8% C 55 +305

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

George Springer R Edge

8.9% 8.7% 5.8% 7.9% D 44 +425

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.0% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 3 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mullins Fortes Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Bieber fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +225 · 70

Cedric Mullins +400 · 47

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 9 mph out 73°F retractable

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

3:07p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

4:07p

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

5:07p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

6:07p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

72°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 73°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 2.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 70 B +225 · 1 0.269 93.0 11.8% 41.5%vs RHP 408 27.6% 36.4% 42.3% 34

2 Jonathan Aranda 51 C +425 · 15 0.163 91.0 10.1% 19.2%vs RHP 387 12.6% 10.0% 11.6% 31

3 Cedric Mullins 47 D +400 WARM 20 0.145 88.0 6.6% 22.2%vs RHP 393 13.9% 25.0% 18.1% 22

4 Yandy Diaz 44 D +500 WARM 29 0.164 91.1 8.4% 22.5%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 43

5 Nick Fortes 40 D — WARM 39 0.103 85.7 5.2% 10.5%vs RHP 396 5.6% 28.6% 16.2% 21

6 Richie Palacios 38 D +850 WARM 46 0.101 85.8 6.1% 9.7%vs RHP 396 3.9% 12.5% 9.2% 18

7 Ben Williamson 34 D — COOL 57 0.079 87.4 4.3% 10.0%vs RHP 398 2.9% 0.0% 9.5% 21

8 Taylor Walls 32 D +950 COOL 62 0.070 85.3 5.4% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 23

9 Chandler Simpson 22 D — COOL 73 0.062 83.9 — 3.7%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 36

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 55 C +305 COOL 9 0.218 91.0 11.2% 25.0%vs LHP 396 19.5% 11.1% 15.2% 19

2 George Springer 44 D +425 · 31 0.162 88.7 8.5% 10.5%vs LHP 391 10.7% 14.3% 8.8% 24

3 Ernie Clement 35 D +700 · 55 0.130 85.0 4.8% 11.5%vs LHP 375 8.4% 11.1% 7.3% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.