TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.88×

AZ @ STL

Busch Stadium · 5:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 9 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

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4:15p

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5:15p

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6:15p

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7:15p

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8:15p

the 5:15p window peaks -10

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 29 · vs McGreevy ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 23 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 80

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +750 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +400 C ●●●○○

3 Ketel Marte +390 D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 8

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +625 D ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker +425 C ●●○○○

3 Alec Burleson +475 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs McGreevy Edge +400 0.227 · 91.3 · 10.4% 20.0% 22.9% F B O C 52

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Pfaadt +425 0.231 · 93.9 · 11.1% 10.0% 13.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs McGreevy +750 0.176 · 85.3 · 8.2% 40.0% 17.7% F B O D 45

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Pfaadt Edge +625 0.139 · 90.0 · 8.0% 33.3% 12.4% F B O D 40

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs McGreevy Edge +390 0.202 · 91.1 · 9.9% 10.0% 11.2% F B O D 47

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs McGreevy +850 0.129 · 89.1 · 8.1% 10.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs McGreevy Edge +850 0.121 · 87.1 · 5.3% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· STL Alec Burleson vs Pfaadt Edge +475 0.184 · 91.6 · 10.0% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +850 0.138 · 86.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.130 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs McGreevy Edge — 0.137 · 87.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Pfaadt +750 0.133 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.125 · 85.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 30

· STL Masyn Winn vs Pfaadt +950 0.084 · 88.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 26.6% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.7% 15.5% 7.7% 11.6% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.2% 8.4% 4.1% 10.5% D 47 +390

Nolan Arenado R

10.6% 2.4% 3.7% 7.2% D 45 +750

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% D 36 —

Gabriel Moreno R

6.6% 6.5% 10.3% 7.0% D 36 +850

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 3.4% D 32 —

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 2.8% 3.0% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.3% ← leak BRK 31.4% OFF 11.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.7% 13.8% 16.1% 14.6% C 53 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.9% 11.6% 10.1% 11.4% D 46 +475

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.4% 3.8% 2.3% 8.1% D 40 +625

Nathan Church L Edge

9.3% 6.2% 6.2% 7.5% D 37 +850

Ivan Herrera R

5.6% 6.1% 7.9% 6.1% D 32 +750

José Fermín R

2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% D 30 —

Masyn Winn R

3.4% 2.2% 3.3% 3.0% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Wetherholt

Legend

attack side — vs McGreevy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Corbin Carroll +400 · 52

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 9 mph in 79°F open

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9 mph · in

80°F

4:15p

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8 mph · in

79°F

5:15p · peak

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8 mph · in

79°F

6:15p

-10

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8 mph · in

79°F

7:15p

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8 mph · in

76°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 79°F, wind 9 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 52 C +400 WARM 11 0.227 91.3 10.4% 20.8%vs RHP 403 14.6% 20.0% 22.9% 24

2 Ketel Marte 47 D +390 COOL 19 0.202 91.1 9.9% 14.5%vs RHP 412 15.5% 10.0% 11.2% 31

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D +750 HOT 26 0.176 85.3 8.2% 20.0%vs RHP 391 13.8% 40.0% 17.7% 23

4 Adrian Del Castillo 36 D — COOL 50 0.130 88.9 7.8% 17.9%vs RHP 400 8.2% 0.0% 9.5% 3

5 Gabriel Moreno 36 D +850 · 52 0.129 89.1 8.1% 15.0%vs RHP 395 8.8% 10.0% 7.3% 30

6 Ildemaro Vargas 32 D — WARM 61 0.137 87.6 5.7% 10.0%vs RHP 399 5.4% 0.0% 7.1% 23

7 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +850 COOL 65 0.121 87.1 5.3% 10.3%vs RHP 386 6.9% 10.0% 6.8% 33

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +425 COOL 10 0.231 93.9 11.1% 33.3%vs RHP 406 19.1% 10.0% 13.4% 28

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +475 WARM 25 0.184 91.6 10.0% 21.0%vs RHP 407 15.6% 0.0% 13.1% 31

3 Jj Wetherholt 40 D +625 WARM 40 0.139 90.0 8.0% 18.0%vs RHP 388 16.7% 33.3% 12.4% 31

4 Nathan Church 37 D +850 COOL 48 0.138 86.2 8.1% 20.7%vs RHP 388 9.1% 0.0% 9.8% 22

5 Ivan Herrera 32 D +750 COOL 60 0.133 89.0 6.9% 17.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 33

6 José Fermín 30 D — COOL 67 0.125 85.4 4.3% 12.5%vs RHP 384 5.3% 0.0% 6.0% 20

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +950 WARM 71 0.084 88.1 5.1% 11.4%vs RHP 390 4.2% 0.0% 5.9% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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