TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.63×

SD @ ATL

Truist Park · 12:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 7 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

12:15p

+6 ↑

1:15p

+6 ↑

2:15p

+6 ↑

3:15p

+6 ↑

4:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Drake Baldwin conv 30 · vs Hart ⟷ Ty France conv 36 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Kyle Hart LHP · SD

leak 98

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Drake Baldwin +475 C+ ●●●●●

2 Matt Olson +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●●○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 41

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France — C+ ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado — C+ ●●●●○

3 Luis Rengifo — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 13.5% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.267 · 92.2 · 8.7% 40.0% 32.5% F B O C+ 63

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Hart +475 0.201 · 91.5 · 10.6% 20.0% 39.0% F B O C+ 64

· SD Manny Machado vs Sale Edge — 0.229 · 90.4 · 8.3% 30.0% 27.7% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Hart +350 0.264 · 92.6 · 10.1% 20.0% 36.4% F B O C+ 69

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Hart Edge +425 0.142 · 90.6 · 9.1% 20.0% 12.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Luis Rengifo HOT vs Sale Edge — 0.046 · 88.1 · 5.3% 33.3% 9.9% F B O D 34

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski HOT vs Hart — 0.134 · 90.3 · 6.8% 25.0% 11.1% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Hart Edge +425 0.170 · 86.8 · 5.5% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 48

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Sale Edge — 0.106 · 88.0 · 6.3% 10.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Sale — 0.193 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 47

· ATL Jim Jarvis vs Hart — 0.166 · 88.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 47

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Sale Edge — 0.117 · 86.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 37

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Hart — 0.121 · 87.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 43

· SD Jase Bowen COOL vs Sale Edge — 0.042 · 85.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Sale — 0.082 · 87.5 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Hart Edge — 0.150 · 86.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.0% ← leak BRK 39.1% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R Edge

13.2% 12.1% 8.0% 12.1% C+ 63 —

Manny Machado R Edge

13.0% 7.7% 5.3% 10.5% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L

9.9% 4.9% 2.0% 7.2% D 47 —

Jase Bowen R Edge

9.5% 20.0% 0.0% 10.3% D 40 —

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

8.0% 2.9% 4.2% 6.3% D 39 —

Freddy Fermin R Edge

2.5% 3.2% 0.0% 2.6% D 37 —

Jake Cronenworth L

6.2% 5.3% 4.5% 5.7% D 36 —

Luis Rengifo S Edge

3.2% 8.0% 5.7% 5.1% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.0% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 44.8% ← leak FB 35.1% OFF 20.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Matt Olson L

10.5% 15.5% 11.4% 13.5% C+ 69 +350

Drake Baldwin L

22.4% 15.6% 3.1% 15.6% C+ 64 +475

Austin Riley R Edge

11.1% 13.2% 3.1% 11.3% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

1.1% 6.4% 3.3% 4.1% D 48 +425

Jim Jarvis L

0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 7.1% D 47 —

Mike Yastrzemski L

4.7% 6.9% 7.4% 6.4% D 47 —

Dominic Smith L

6.5% 6.5% 2.9% 5.8% D 43 —

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

6.7% 3.6% 3.8% 4.5% D 41 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (44.8% usage) carries Hart's damage — BRK is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Rengifo Olson Baldwin Riley Yastrzemski

Legend

attack side — vs Hart fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ty France — · 63

Drake Baldwin +475 · 64

Manny Machado — · 60

Matt Olson +350 · 69

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 1.16× Wind 7 mph out 86°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

12:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

1:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

2:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

3:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.63× 86°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 63 C+ — HOT 5 0.267 92.2 8.7% 27.3%vs LHP 394 19.6% 40.0% 32.5% 30

2 Manny Machado 60 C+ — WARM 6 0.229 90.4 8.3% 19.1%vs LHP 397 20.8% 30.0% 27.7% 33

3 Gavin Sheets 47 D — COOL 20 0.193 87.9 6.7% 19.4% 397 11.5% 0.0% 13.8% 19

4 Jase Bowen 40 D — COOL 44 0.042 85.3 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 4

5 Xander Bogaerts 39 D — WARM 50 0.106 88.0 6.3% 6.2%vs LHP 396 8.5% 10.0% 7.8% 28

6 Freddy Fermin 37 D — WARM 53 0.117 86.3 4.0% 25.0%vs LHP 382 3.7% 0.0% 12.6% 6

7 Jake Cronenworth 36 D — COOL 57 0.082 87.5 6.0% 10.7% 389 1.9% 0.0% 8.3% 23

8 Luis Rengifo 34 D — HOT 63 0.046 88.1 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 0 1.6% 33.3% 9.9% 14

vs Kyle Hart · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 69 C+ +350 COOL 2 0.264 92.6 10.1% 20.0%vs LHP 408 20.8% 20.0% 36.4% 25

2 Drake Baldwin 64 C+ +475 · 3 0.201 91.5 10.6% 43.8%vs LHP 405 18.8% 20.0% 39.0% 35

3 Austin Riley 51 C +425 HOT 15 0.142 90.6 9.1% 12.5%vs LHP 405 9.0% 20.0% 12.5% 24

4 Ozzie Albies 48 D +425 COOL 18 0.170 86.8 5.5% 14.9%vs LHP 384 12.9% 10.0% 9.2% 28

5 Jim Jarvis 47 D — WARM 21 0.166 88.0 7.5% 10.0% 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 29

6 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D — HOT 22 0.134 90.3 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 387 7.9% 25.0% 11.1% 7

7 Dominic Smith 43 D — WARM 29 0.121 87.8 6.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 8.7% 12

8 Mauricio Dubon 41 D — · 36 0.150 86.4 5.8% 12.9%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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