2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 4 Junior Caminero 5 HRs · 5 Mookie Betts 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs · 10 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Kyle Hart
Kyle Hart LHP LAD
7 matchups scored · 1 game days
2 HRs Allowed
28.6% HR Rate (Pool)
0.0% Overall HR/FB
2.94 FIP
4.11 xFIP
-1.17 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
2.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
0.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
3th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
85.7%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.94
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
15th pctile
4.11
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-1.17
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
4th pctile
28.6%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
7
Pool Matchups
2
HRs Allowed (Pool)
0
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
28.6%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 2 28.6% 2.0 101.9mph 103.8mph 26.0° 400ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 15 7 1 2 28.6% 2.0 101.9mph 103.8mph 26.0° 400ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 30 7 1 2 28.6% 2.0 101.9mph 103.8mph 26.0° 400ft Flat +0.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
7 tracked BBE from 7 pool matchups
101.9
112.3
6
0
103.8
26.0°
400
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-27 Shohei Ohtani 112.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-27 Freddie Freeman 109.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-27 Kyle Tucker 106.7mph 106.7mph 27° 398ft Yes
2026-06-27 Andy Pages 106.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-27 Mookie Betts 101.4mph 100.9mph 25° 402ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
1 days · 2 total HRs
HRs Allowed
2 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-27 Mookie Betts #99 45 Petco Park 100.9mph 25.0° 402ft
2026-06-27 Kyle Tucker #194 30 Petco Park 106.7mph 27.0° 398ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sweeper 114 30.2% -1.6 79.5 21.5° 0
Sinker 84 22.3% -0.4 74.3 -2.8° 0
Splitter 80 21.2% -1.5 83.0 1.8° 0
Slider 62 16.4% -0.1 82.7 16.6° 0
Fastball 37 9.8% +0.0 79.8 16.2° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
85.7%
85.7%
All Scored Matchups
7 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-27 Alex Freeland #215 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-27 Kyle Tucker #194 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-27 Andy Pages #126 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-27 Mookie Betts #99 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-27 Freddie Freeman #88 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-27 Max Muncy #32 59 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-27 Shohei Ohtani #25 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Kyle Hart's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

7 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.24 · build 525

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.