TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.84×

MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 8 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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best window is early — 1:10p at -9

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 22 · vs Williams ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 23 · vs Bradley → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 100

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +525 C ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens +390 C ●●●○○

3 Byron Buxton +320 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 57

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana +575 D ●●●●○

2 Patrick Bailey +700 D ●●●○○

3 Rhys Hoskins +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: Match 28.6% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Williams +525 0.174 · 89.1 · 12.0% 22.2% 22.0% F B O C 51

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Bradley +425 0.202 · 88.8 · 10.9% 16.7% 22.0% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Williams Edge +390 0.243 · 92.7 · 12.1% 10.0% 26.9% F B O C 57

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ vs Williams +320 0.297 · 90.8 · 14.4% 0.0% 28.6% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Bradley Edge +575 0.172 · 88.3 · 7.0% 27.3% 18.5% F B O D 44

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Bradley Edge +700 0.099 · 90.1 · 8.2% 28.6% 12.5% F B O D 38

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Bradley Edge +750 0.149 · 87.0 · 9.2% 14.3% 14.3% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio HOT vs Bradley Edge +750 0.132 · 86.7 · 5.1% 18.2% 9.0% F B O D 35

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Williams Edge +750 0.175 · 88.1 · 6.5% 11.1% 11.2% F B O D 41

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Bradley Edge +475 0.142 · 89.1 · 10.2% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Bradley Edge +475 0.170 · 91.1 · 7.9% 0.0% 19.6% F B O D 39

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Bradley Edge +400 0.179 · 90.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 39

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Williams Edge +500 0.176 · 89.9 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Williams +950 0.088 · 84.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 29

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Williams — 0.074 · 86.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 27

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Bradley Edge +1000 0.060 · 83.2 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.7% BRK 48.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Byron Buxton R

19.4% 16.7% 18.1% C+ 64 +320

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.3% 20.3% 13.0% C 57 +390

Royce Lewis R

15.0% 11.1% 13.1% C 51 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Josh Bell S Edge

9.9% 14.5% 10.0% D 45 +500

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 1.2% 3.9% D 41 +750

Luke Keaschall R

3.7% 3.8% 3.3% D 29 +950

Austin Martin R

3.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 71.7% ← leak OFF 19.5% BRK 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

10.6% 14.3% 16.7% 12.5% C 50 +425

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.5% 4.0% 4.2% 5.6% D 44 +575

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.4% 8.1% 10.9% 11.2% D 42 +475

Petey Halpin L Edge

7.4% 11.1% 12.5% 9.6% D 41 +750

Chase Delauter L Edge

10.7% 1.8% 5.9% 7.7% D 39 +475

Jose Ramirez L Edge

— — — — D 39 +400

Patrick Bailey S Edge

9.2% 3.3% 5.1% 6.9% D 38 +700

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.5% 1.3% 3.9% 3.0% D 35 +750

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 21 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.7% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lewis Hoskins Bazzana Halpin Bailey Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Royce Lewis +525 · 51

Travis Bazzana +575 · 44

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 8 mph in 74°F open

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1:10p · peak

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× 74°F, wind 8 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 64 C+ +320 WARM 4 0.297 90.8 14.4% 32.3%vs RHP 402 30.3% 0.0% 28.6% 7

2 Kody Clemens 57 C +390 COOL 7 0.243 92.7 12.1% 21.2%vs RHP 389 18.6% 10.0% 26.9% 24

3 Royce Lewis 51 C +525 · 13 0.174 89.1 12.0% 19.1%vs RHP 396 16.7% 22.2% 22.0% 26

4 Josh Bell 45 D +500 COOL 27 0.176 89.9 10.8% 20.8%vs RHP 404 10.4% 0.0% 11.5% 30

5 Brooks Lee 41 D +750 · 37 0.175 88.1 6.5% 19.0%vs RHP 367 15.2% 11.1% 11.2% 26

6 Luke Keaschall 29 D +950 WARM 69 0.088 84.3 5.9% 7.5%vs RHP 370 4.7% 0.0% 9.0% 20

7 Austin Martin 27 D — COOL 70 0.074 86.9 4.9% 4.2%vs RHP 392 1.9% 0.0% 8.5% 10

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 50 C +425 HOT 16 0.202 88.8 10.9% 26.9%vs RHP 386 13.7% 16.7% 22.0% 11

2 Travis Bazzana 44 D +575 WARM 30 0.172 88.3 7.0% 21.9%vs RHP 396 13.8% 27.3% 18.5% 25

3 Kyle Manzardo 42 D +475 WARM 33 0.142 89.1 10.2% 20.4%vs RHP 389 11.2% 12.5% 9.3% 22

4 Petey Halpin 41 D +750 COOL 36 0.149 87.0 9.2% 10.5%vs RHP 404 6.7% 14.3% 14.3% 22

5 Chase Delauter 39 D +475 HOT 42 0.170 91.1 7.9% 24.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 36

6 Jose Ramirez 39 D +400 COOL 43 0.179 90.3 7.9% 13.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 5

7 Patrick Bailey 38 D +700 COOL 45 0.099 90.1 8.2% 10.0%vs RHP 402 5.3% 28.6% 12.5% 22

8 Brayan Rocchio 35 D +750 HOT 54 0.132 86.7 5.1% 15.2%vs RHP 386 8.4% 18.2% 9.0% 36

9 Steven Kwan 21 D +1000 COOL 74 0.060 83.2 1.9% 1.9%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 6.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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