Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-23T11:00:20-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-23
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +3.9 | -1.3 | 43% | 5 | 1 | #57 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shane Bieber | Slider | +4.3 | +7.4 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #30 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Randy Dobnak | Sweeper | +4.9 | +2.6 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #52 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.5 | 48% | 6 | 7 | #58 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +6.0 | +1.8 | 19% | 0 | 0 | #30 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.5 | 48% | 5 | 7 | #31 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.5 | 48% | 6 | 7 | #45 | |
| · | Austin Martin | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +5.3 | +0.6 | 26% | 1 | 6 | #76 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +2.6 | +1.0 | 36% | 7 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +2.5 | -1.3 | 43% | 1 | 1 | #18 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.5 | 48% | 7 | 7 | #44 | |
| · | Kyle Manzardo | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.5 | 48% | 4 | 7 | #35 | |
| · | Petey Halpin | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.5 | 48% | 1 | 7 | #38 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +3.8 | +0.6 | 26% | 2 | 6 | #7 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Randy Dobnak | Sweeper | +3.1 | +2.6 | 23% | 4 | 1 | #8 | |
| · | Rhys Hoskins | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.5 | 48% | 3 | 7 | #16 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Randy Dobnak | Sweeper | +3.0 | +2.6 | 23% | 2 | 1 | #18 | |
| · | Gleyber Torres | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +1.7 | -1.3 | 43% | 2 | 1 | #63 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.5 | 48% | 1 | 7 | #80 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +4.2 | +1.8 | 19% | 1 | 0 | #1 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Chris Sale | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.7 | 41% | 10 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Michael McGreevy | Cutter | +7.2 | +0.2 | 11% | 1 | 2 | #67 | |
| · | Chandler Simpson | Shane Bieber | Slider | +2.0 | +7.4 | 10% | 1 | 2 | #79 | |
| · | Cedric Mullins | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +4.0 | +1.8 | 19% | 1 | 0 | #20 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Ian Seymour | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.8 | 26% | 9 | 4 | #9 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +0.4 | +1.0 | 36% | 5 | 3 | #15 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Chris Sale | Slider | +1.5 | -1.5 | 39% | 1 | 0 | #21 | |
| · | Ty France | Chris Sale | Slider | +1.4 | -1.5 | 39% | 4 | 0 | #5 | |
| · | Spencer Torkelson | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +0.3 | -1.3 | 43% | 4 | 1 | #12 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | Shane Bieber | Slider | +1.0 | +7.4 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #15 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+32.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.3 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.1 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.