Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-02T11:00:44-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-02
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jose Trevino | Jacob Misiorowski | Cutter | +18.5 | -5.5 | 14% | 1 | 0 | #109 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +3.5 | -2.0 | 63% | 6 | 3 | #47 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.2 | -0.9 | 56% | 5 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -2.0 | 63% | 9 | 3 | #36 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -2.0 | 63% | 4 | 3 | #60 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Chase Burns | Changeup | +5.6 | +9.4 | 6% | 1 | 3 | #77 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Alan Rangel | Fastball | +7.5 | -1.6 | 35% | 3 | 0 | #12 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Jared Jones | Fastball | +4.3 | +1.2 | 38% | 10 | 3 | #4 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +3.7 | +9.7 | 9% | 7 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +3.4 | +9.7 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #104 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Jared Jones | Fastball | +3.1 | +1.2 | 38% | 9 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +3.1 | +9.7 | 9% | 3 | 1 | #38 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Chase Burns | Changeup | +3.8 | +9.4 | 6% | 2 | 3 | #10 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Framber Valdez | Curveball | +5.7 | +0.7 | 28% | 1 | 3 | #56 | |
| · | David Hamilton | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.9 | 56% | 3 | 6 | #97 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.9 | 56% | 2 | 6 | #19 | |
| · | William Contreras | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.9 | 56% | 5 | 6 | #48 | |
| · | Miguel Andujar | Roki Sasaki | Splitter | +8.0 | -1.0 | 22% | 1 | 2 | #54 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.9 | +1.7 | 44% | 6 | 8 | #9 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Randy Vasquez | Curveball | +8.0 | +1.7 | 12% | 1 | 2 | #18 | |
| · | Bryson Stott | Jared Jones | Slider | +3.7 | +0.9 | 33% | 2 | 1 | #42 | |
| · | Alejandro Osuna | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +2.0 | -0.5 | 46% | 0 | 4 | #140 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +1.7 | -0.5 | 46% | 6 | 4 | #56 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Slade Cecconi | Sweeper | +8.0 | +2.8 | 6% | 2 | 2 | #110 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.4 | +1.7 | 44% | 6 | 8 | #7 | |
| · | Ty France | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.7 | 44% | 2 | 8 | #8 | |
| · | William Contreras | Chase Burns | Changeup | +2.7 | +9.4 | 6% | 0 | 3 | #48 | |
| · | Troy Johnston | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +1.7 | +9.7 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #81 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Alan Rangel | Changeup | +3.3 | -0.2 | 36% | 4 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.1 | +1.7 | 44% | 3 | 8 | #58 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.0 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.2 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+22.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.