Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-06-19T14:00:28-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
2
Edges That Hit HR
7%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-19
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nick Kurtz | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +18.0 | -1.0 | 25% | 0 | 2 | #3 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +13.2 | -1.8 | 27% | 2 | 2 | #51 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Jose Soriano | Knuckle Curve | +11.9 | -1.0 | 25% | 1 | 2 | #14 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Erick Fedde | Sweeper | +8.7 | -1.1 | 38% | 1 | 3 | #93 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +3.4 | -2.1 | 63% | 6 | 3 | #79 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +6.4 | +0.4 | 39% | 1 | 3 | #32 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Jose Soriano | Splitter | +11.9 | -2.4 | 20% | 1 | 0 | #28 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -2.1 | 63% | 3 | 3 | #175 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +5.0 | +0.4 | 39% | 0 | 3 | #87 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Cam Schlittler | Cutter | +9.4 | -1.8 | 27% | 4 | 2 | #119 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.4 | -2.1 | 63% | 8 | 3 | #46 | |
| · | Spencer Horwitz | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +6.7 | +2.4 | 23% | 0 | 2 | #33 | |
| · | Cody Bellinger | Rhett Lowder | Slider | +6.2 | +2.7 | 24% | 5 | 3 | #47 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Erick Fedde | Changeup | +8.0 | +3.0 | 14% | 3 | 2 | #18 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.1 | 49% | 2 | 5 | #61 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Jeffrey Springs | Sweeper | +9.5 | +3.1 | 6% | 2 | 2 | #64 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.9 | +1.6 | 43% | 8 | 7 | #9 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Ben Brown | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | -3.4 | 36% | 0 | 0 | #67 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | -2.1 | 63% | 4 | 3 | #170 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +3.2 | +3.9 | 27% | 8 | 7 | #10 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Kyle Freeland | Fastball | +3.0 | +3.9 | 27% | 6 | 7 | #12 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Cam Schlittler | Fastball | +3.4 | -1.6 | 44% | 5 | 2 | #48 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.1 | +1.6 | 43% | 3 | 7 | #52 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #88 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Martin Perez | Changeup | +5.6 | -1.2 | 33% | 1 | 2 | #139 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 49% | 1 | 5 | #166 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Martin Perez | Curveball | +10.0 | -0.2 | 9% | 2 | 1 | #198 | |
| 💥 | Zach Neto | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.3 | +1.1 | 43% | 6 | 8 | #4 | |
| · | Kyle Stowers | Landen Roupp | Curveball | +6.5 | -1.2 | 28% | 1 | 1 | #110 | |
| · | Taylor Ward | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.9 | +1.6 | 43% | 2 | 7 | #126 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.