Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-18T11:00:22-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
1
Edges That Hit HR
3%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-18
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Brett Baty | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +12.5 | -0.7 | 33% | 1 | 4 | #84 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Gage Jump | Curveball | +14.7 | +0.7 | 9% | 0 | 0 | #95 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Shane Baz | Knuckle Curve | +8.4 | +0.3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #12 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Martín Pérez | Changeup | +9.0 | -1.2 | 33% | 4 | 2 | #32 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +8.5 | -0.5 | 32% | 0 | 1 | #97 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Sean Burke | Fastball | +6.9 | -0.3 | 37% | 9 | 6 | #6 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Sean Burke | Fastball | +5.7 | -0.3 | 37% | 5 | 6 | #14 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Gage Jump | Sweeper | +9.5 | +3.5 | 7% | 2 | 0 | #78 | |
| · | Justin Crawford | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +5.3 | +1.2 | 32% | 1 | 2 | #122 | |
| · | Wilyer Abreu | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +6.6 | -0.5 | 32% | 1 | 1 | #86 | |
| 💥 | Juan Soto | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +3.8 | +4.6 | 25% | 7 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +7.2 | +0.8 | 21% | 0 | 1 | #6 | |
| · | George Springer | Sonny Gray | Cutter | +9.5 | -1.7 | 20% | 3 | 1 | #76 | |
| · | Mickey Gasper | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.9 | -0.8 | 47% | 0 | 1 | #131 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Gage Jump | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.7 | 50% | 7 | 0 | #19 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +4.0 | +1.2 | 32% | 3 | 2 | #23 | |
| · | Bo Bichette | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +5.3 | -0.7 | 33% | 0 | 4 | #51 | |
| · | Mauricio Dubón | Landen Roupp | Curveball | +6.8 | -1.2 | 28% | 2 | 1 | #70 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Sonny Gray | Curveball | +5.3 | +3.2 | 18% | 2 | 2 | #49 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.6 | 49% | 8 | 3 | #27 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Parker Messick | Curveball | +9.4 | -0.4 | 11% | 2 | 0 | #127 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Landen Roupp | Sinker | +3.3 | -0.5 | 36% | 5 | 3 | #24 | |
| · | Jo Adell | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.7 | 50% | 6 | 0 | #88 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.7 | 50% | 6 | 0 | #22 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Sonny Gray | Cutter | +7.7 | -1.7 | 20% | 3 | 1 | #49 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Parker Messick | Changeup | +5.6 | -0.4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | #65 | |
| · | Nathan Church | Noah Cameron | Cutter | +6.4 | +0.2 | 20% | 2 | 1 | #104 | |
| · | Josh Jung | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.3 | 44% | 4 | 5 | #106 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Jack Leiter | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.2 | 38% | 8 | 4 | #3 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +4.0 | -0.5 | 32% | 1 | 1 | #20 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.