19
HRs allowed
14.2%
HR rate (pool)
15.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.27
FIP
3.75
xFIP
+0.52
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
71
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 71th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.4 EV · 400 ft
max EV allowed 116.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 5 HR ↑
15D · 7 HR ↑
30D · 10 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Jack Leiter.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
38.1%
83.3
31.3°
4
-0.2
Slider Breaking
18.2%
85.6
14.8°
4
+0.2
Changeup Offspeed
17.6%
82.5
6.7°
3
+1.8
Cutter Hard
9.7%
80.5
20.8°
1
+0.2
Curveball Breaking
8.7%
81.6
4.0°
1
+2.8
Sinker Hard
7.6%
82.1
19.9°
1
+0.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups134
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate14.2%
Pool HR/game day1.27
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-154
Overall HR/FB15.1% 71
HR/9—
FIP4.27 59
xFIP3.75
FIP − xFIP+0.52 74
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 38.1% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle31.3°
HRs allowed4
Pitches554
Slider
Breaking · 18.2% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle14.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches265
Changeup
Offspeed · 17.6% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle6.7°
HRs allowed3
Pitches256
Cutter
Hard · 9.7% usage
+0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle20.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches141
Curveball
Breaking · 8.7% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.6 mph
Avg launch angle4.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches126
Sinker
Hard · 7.6% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches111
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Jack Leiter.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.4 EV · 400 ft
10 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-18
8
2
104.9
2026-06-12
9
3
106.1
2026-06-06
9
2
108.2
2026-05-31
9
1
110.4
2026-05-26
9
2
112.2
2026-05-20
9
0
101.8
2026-05-15
9
1
110.0
2026-05-09
9
0
108.5
2026-05-03
9
1
102.1
2026-04-27
9
3
113.0
2026-04-22
9
1
116.9
2026-04-16
9
0
112.9
2026-04-11
9
2
110.8
2026-04-05
9
0
106.4
2026-03-30
9
1
105.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Jack Leiter isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.