Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-10T11:00:27-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-10
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +25.4 | -0.6 | 35% | 1 | 6 | #22 | |
| · | Brett Baty | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +12.9 | +1.6 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #195 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Jared Jones | Curveball | +8.3 | +7.6 | 14% | 1 | 0 | #36 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +3.1 | -0.7 | 58% | 3 | 9 | #158 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Jared Jones | Fastball | +3.0 | +5.0 | 38% | 7 | 2 | #31 | |
| · | Zack Gelof | Brandon Sproat | Cutter | +9.2 | +0.1 | 25% | 2 | 2 | #55 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.3 | +5.0 | 38% | 4 | 2 | #154 | |
| 💥 | Spencer Horwitz | Shohei Ohtani | Splitter | +10.7 | +2.0 | 9% | 1 | 0 | #134 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Jared Jones | Fastball | +1.7 | +5.0 | 38% | 7 | 2 | #64 | |
| · | Jackson Merrill | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.3 | +1.6 | 47% | 1 | 8 | #110 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Brady Singer | Fastball | +0.4 | +16.1 | 3% | 5 | 1 | #57 | |
| · | Yordan Álvarez | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +4.1 | -0.8 | 44% | 7 | 1 | #12 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Brady Singer | Fastball | +0.2 | +16.1 | 3% | 3 | 1 | #38 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Robbie Ray | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.0 | 44% | 3 | 9 | #48 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +1.0 | -0.7 | 58% | 1 | 9 | #149 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.9 | +5.0 | 38% | 4 | 2 | #162 | |
| 💥 | Kyle Schwarber | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.8 | -0.5 | 49% | 7 | 2 | #2 | |
| · | Connor Norby | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.7 | -0.7 | 58% | 2 | 9 | #101 | |
| · | Ty France | Brady Singer | Fastball | -0.2 | +16.1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #56 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Jared Jones | Curveball | +3.9 | +7.6 | 14% | 1 | 0 | #64 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Parker Messick | Fastball | +7.3 | -1.9 | 32% | 4 | 2 | #71 | |
| · | Will Smith | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.5 | +5.0 | 38% | 3 | 2 | #117 | |
| · | Alex Freeland | Jared Jones | Fastball | +0.4 | +5.0 | 38% | 2 | 2 | #173 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Parker Messick | Fastball | +7.1 | -1.9 | 32% | 9 | 2 | #24 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Seth Lugo | Cutter | +9.3 | +0.1 | 15% | 1 | 2 | #99 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Michael Lorenzen | Cutter | +9.2 | +0.4 | 14% | 1 | 1 | #171 | |
| · | Freddy Fermin | Brady Singer | Fastball | -0.6 | +16.1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #119 | |
| · | Maikel García | MacKenzie Gore | Curveball | +7.4 | +0.0 | 22% | 0 | 2 | #201 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.5 | 49% | 3 | 2 | #14 | |
| 💥 | Shohei Ohtani | Jared Jones | Fastball | -0.1 | +5.0 | 38% | 3 | 2 | #34 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.