TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.03×

TEX @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph slight_out 69°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

+1 ↑

2:10p

+0 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +1

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 25 · vs deGrom ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 36 · vs Gilbert → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 83

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +305 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Corey Seager +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran +700 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 32.3% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.246 · 92.0 · 10.6% 40.0% 32.3% F B O C+ 63

· TEX Corey Seager vs Gilbert Edge +370 0.205 · 91.6 · 12.4% 33.3% 25.0% F B O C+ 61

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs deGrom Edge +305 0.193 · 89.8 · 11.2% 27.3% 22.3% F B O C 55

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Gilbert +700 0.176 · 88.9 · 8.0% 25.0% 22.3% F B O C 50

· TEX Jake Burger vs Gilbert +425 0.198 · 90.3 · 11.2% 16.7% 24.9% F B O C 57

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs deGrom Edge +425 0.219 · 91.1 · 10.0% 16.7% 16.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs deGrom +500 0.189 · 90.5 · 8.1% 16.7% 18.5% F B O D 49

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Gilbert Edge +850 0.129 · 88.0 · 7.3% 16.7% 8.3% F B O D 40

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Gilbert +425 0.195 · 88.9 · 8.1% 8.3% 14.8% F B O D 49

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Gilbert Edge +525 0.150 · 92.3 · 9.9% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs deGrom +525 0.151 · 90.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young vs deGrom Edge +750 0.136 · 88.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs deGrom Edge +850 0.120 · 87.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 34

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.043 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 21

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs deGrom Edge +750 0.094 · 87.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Gilbert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob deGrom — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Duran Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Joc Pederson +500 · 63

Corey Seager +370 · 61

Cal Raleigh +305 · 55

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 50

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph slight_out 69°F retractable

↑

2 mph · cross

69°F

1:10p

↑

1 mph · cross

71°F

2:10p · peak

↑

1 mph · in

71°F

3:10p

-1

↑

2 mph · in

72°F

4:10p

↑

2 mph · cross

72°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 69°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 63 C+ +500 COOL 6 0.246 92.0 10.6% 30.0%vs RHP 396 22.9% 40.0% 32.3% 14

2 Corey Seager 61 C+ +370 WARM 10 0.205 91.6 12.4% 22.4%vs RHP 394 18.6% 33.3% 25.0% 38

3 Jake Burger 57 C +425 WARM 16 0.198 90.3 11.2% 20.0%vs RHP 402 16.8% 16.7% 24.9% 28

4 Ezequiel Duran 50 C +700 · 26 0.176 88.9 8.0% 21.0%vs RHP 397 13.6% 25.0% 22.3% 36

5 Wyatt Langford 49 D +425 COOL 32 0.195 88.9 8.1% 21.6%vs RHP 399 15.1% 8.3% 14.8% 31

6 Brandon Nimmo 46 D +525 COOL 44 0.150 92.3 9.9% 11.7%vs RHP 404 9.6% 8.3% 9.4% 36

7 Evan Carter 40 D +850 COOL 59 0.129 88.0 7.3% 12.5%vs RHP 380 7.7% 16.7% 8.3% 23

8 Nicky Lopez 21 D — COOL 81 0.043 84.4 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 9.2% 7

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.28 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 55 C +305 WARM 19 0.193 89.8 11.2% 17.5%vs RHP 383 16.1% 27.3% 22.3% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 54 C +425 · 22 0.219 91.1 10.0% 23.9%vs RHP 404 15.0% 16.7% 16.8% 39

3 Randy Arozarena 49 D +500 · 31 0.189 90.5 8.1% 25.4%vs RHP 386 14.9% 16.7% 18.5% 31

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +525 WARM 51 0.151 90.1 8.6% 18.8%vs RHP 404 14.7% 0.0% 10.5% 37

5 Cole Young 38 D +750 WARM 66 0.136 88.1 6.4% 17.8%vs RHP 383 10.9% 0.0% 9.4% 29

6 J.P. Crawford 34 D +850 COOL 72 0.120 87.9 6.8% 21.4%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 29

7 Josh Naylor 32 D +750 COOL 75 0.094 87.0 6.0% 10.4%vs RHP 392 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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