TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.18×

TB @ ATL

Truist Park · 12:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

12:15p

+1 ↑

1:15p

+1 ↑

2:15p

+1 ↑

3:15p

+3 ↑

4:15p

conditions build late — the 4:15p window peaks +3

Best of game Richie Palacios conv 33 · vs Pérez ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 14 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 52

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Richie Palacios — D ●●●●●

2 Junior Caminero +330 C+ ●●●●●

3 Jonathan Aranda +700 C ●●●○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 42

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +425 C ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — D ●●○○○

3 Ronald Acuna — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 32.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Pérez Edge +330 0.251 · 92.9 · 8.6% 33.3% 32.9% F B O C+ 66

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Pérez +700 0.149 · 91.1 · 7.4% 27.3% 17.8% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Martinez Edge +425 0.176 · 91.6 · 9.4% 15.4% 12.7% F B O C 53

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Martinez Edge +305 0.256 · 92.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 18.2% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Pérez — 0.139 · 86.0 · 5.0% 50.0% 16.7% F B O D 45

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.198 · 90.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 23.8% F B O D 49

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Martinez — 0.187 · 90.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 21.7% F B O D 48

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Pérez — 0.141 · 87.8 · 4.9% 12.5% 8.9% F B O D 42

· ATL Austin Riley vs Martinez +475 0.143 · 91.4 · 9.2% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Martinez Edge +625 0.159 · 87.1 · 5.3% 7.7% 9.7% F B O D 43

· TB Yandy Diaz HOT vs Pérez Edge +525 0.167 · 91.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 43

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Martinez Edge — 0.123 · 87.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Pérez Edge +950 0.156 · 85.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Martinez Edge +575 0.144 · 90.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Martinez +850 0.120 · 86.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Pérez — 0.050 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 21

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.099 · 85.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Martín Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Baldwin

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +330 · 66

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph in 84°F open

↑

3 mph · in

80°F

12:15p

↑

3 mph · in

83°F

1:15p

↑

3 mph · in

85°F

2:15p

↑

4 mph · cross

85°F

3:15p

↑

4 mph · cross

85°F

4:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 84°F, wind 3 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +330 · 5 0.251 92.9 8.6% 34.8%vs LHP 415 25.4% 33.3% 32.9% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C +700 WARM 27 0.149 91.1 7.4% 10.7%vs LHP 392 12.6% 27.3% 17.8% 32

3 Richie Palacios 45 D — WARM 48 0.139 86.0 5.0% 11.1% 388 8.4% 50.0% 16.7% 23

4 Yandy Diaz 43 D +525 HOT 50 0.167 91.1 6.5% 21.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 44

5 Cedric Mullins 42 D — COOL 55 0.141 87.8 4.9% 3.9%vs LHP 387 11.5% 12.5% 8.9% 25

6 Jonny Deluca 39 D +950 COOL 60 0.156 85.6 4.3% 10.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 26

7 Nick Fortes 34 D — COOL 74 0.099 85.1 3.5% 5.0%vs LHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 7.2% 9

8 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 82 0.050 83.7 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 46

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 62 C+ +305 COOL 9 0.256 92.6 10.1% 29.1%vs RHP 408 22.4% 0.0% 18.2% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +425 · 24 0.176 91.6 9.4% 22.7%vs RHP 402 15.9% 15.4% 12.7% 39

3 Michael Harris 49 D — COOL 30 0.198 90.4 8.5% 25.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 34

4 Ronald Acuna 48 D — WARM 36 0.187 90.6 9.4% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 38

5 Austin Riley 46 D +475 · 40 0.143 91.4 9.2% 17.5%vs RHP 409 9.0% 8.3% 9.5% 27

6 Ozzie Albies 43 D +625 WARM 52 0.159 87.1 5.3% 13.0%vs RHP 387 13.0% 7.7% 9.7% 39

7 Mike Yastrzemski 42 D +575 COOL 54 0.144 90.5 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 389 7.5% 0.0% 9.0% 21

8 Dominic Smith 40 D — WARM 58 0.123 87.8 6.1% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% 3

9 Mauricio Dubon 34 D +850 · 70 0.120 86.5 5.1% 9.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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