TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.38×

COL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:05p

+10 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

+2 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +10

Best of game Paul Goldschmidt conv 24 · vs Feltner ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 54 · vs Fried → edge: Aaron Judge

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 87

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jazz Chisholm — C ●●●○○

3 Ben Rice +235 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 7

0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +950 D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +350 C ●●○○○

3 Mickey Moniak — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Aaron Judge: Match 26.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Feltner — 0.205 · 86.8 · 10.2% 22.2% 25.2% F B O C+ 60

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.171 · 90.5 · 9.0% 20.0% 12.6% F B O C 52

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Feltner Edge +235 0.261 · 92.0 · 11.8% 8.3% 19.7% F B O C+ 68

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Fried Edge +350 0.281 · 90.2 · 6.3% 10.0% 16.8% F B O C 56

· NYY Aaron Judge ✶ COOL vs Feltner +186 0.276 · 94.0 · 14.3% 0.0% 26.5% F B O B 70

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Fried +950 0.160 · 84.3 · 3.6% 100.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Fried — 0.245 · 89.5 · 5.0% 11.1% 12.3% F B O D 48

· COL Cole Carrigg HOT vs Fried Edge +850 0.182 · 87.2 · 3.8% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 39

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Feltner Edge +400 0.154 · 89.1 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 48

· NYY Austin Wells vs Feltner Edge +425 0.122 · 89.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 45

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Feltner — 0.136 · 83.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Feltner Edge +475 0.145 · 90.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 49

· COL Kyle Karros vs Fried Edge +750 0.158 · 89.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 38

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Fried +950 0.188 · 85.5 · 3.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 38

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Fried Edge +950 0.120 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 32

· COL Troy Johnston vs Fried — 0.116 · 89.7 · 2.4% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Feltner — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Rumfield Judge Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Paul Goldschmidt — · 60

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph out 81°F open

+10

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

7:05p · peak

+10

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

8:05p

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

9:05p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:05p

↑

10 mph · cross

77°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 81°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.95 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 56 C +350 COOL 17 0.281 90.2 6.3% 32.1%vs LHP 410 23.7% 10.0% 16.8% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 48 D — · 37 0.245 89.5 5.0% 16.7%vs LHP 416 17.0% 11.1% 12.3% 26

3 Cole Carrigg 39 D +850 HOT 61 0.182 87.2 3.8% 11.5%vs LHP 402 7.5% 11.1% 9.8% 32

4 Jake Mccarthy 38 D +950 WARM 63 0.188 85.5 3.7% 20.0%vs LHP 415 10.5% 0.0% 9.9% 45

5 Kyle Karros 38 D +750 WARM 65 0.158 89.3 4.6% 8.0%vs LHP 416 10.3% 0.0% 10.1% 5

6 Tj Rumfield 37 D +950 HOT 69 0.160 84.3 3.6% 12.1%vs LHP 412 10.5% 100.0% 8.8% 35

7 Ezequiel Tovar 32 D +950 COOL 76 0.120 87.4 4.1% 5.3%vs LHP 409 7.4% 0.0% 6.4% 16

8 Troy Johnston 29 D — WARM 79 0.116 89.7 2.4% 8.7%vs LHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 5.9% 15

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Aaron Judge ✶ 70 B +186 COOL 2 0.276 94.0 14.3% 34.3%vs RHP 404 22.2% 0.0% 26.5% 4

2 Ben Rice 68 C+ +235 COOL 3 0.261 92.0 11.8% 30.9%vs RHP 395 23.4% 8.3% 19.7% 36

3 Paul Goldschmidt 60 C+ — WARM 11 0.205 86.8 10.2% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 22.2% 25.2% 19

4 Jazz Chisholm 52 C — COOL 25 0.171 90.5 9.0% 22.6%vs RHP 384 14.3% 20.0% 12.6% 24

5 Ryan Mcmahon 49 D +475 COOL 34 0.145 90.9 9.3% 18.5%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 10.2% 14

6 Cody Bellinger 48 D +400 COOL 39 0.154 89.1 7.6% 11.4%vs RHP 376 9.6% 7.7% 9.8% 45

7 Austin Wells 45 D +425 WARM 49 0.122 89.2 8.0% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.7% 0.0% 14.6% 22

8 Jose Caballero 40 D — · 57 0.136 83.9 6.4% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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