TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CWS

Playable air · 1.07×

PIT @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 32 · vs Jones ⟷ Esmerlyn Valdez conv 25 · vs Smith → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 91

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C ●●○○○

FADE Hagen Smith LHP

leak 3

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Esmerlyn Valdez — C+ ●●●●○

2 Brandon Lowe +400 C ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 37.5% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Jones Edge +350 0.222 · 88.7 · 10.0% 33.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Jones Edge +305 0.270 · 94.0 · 12.4% 16.7% 37.5% F B O C+ 68

· — Esmerlyn Valdez COOL vs Smith Edge — 0.282 · 91.9 · 11.0% 25.0% 25.7% F B O C+ 63

· — Brandon Lowe COOL vs Smith +400 0.220 · 91.0 · 8.3% 22.2% 19.3% F B O C 55

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Jones — 0.275 · 91.4 · 9.6% 0.0% 29.0% F B O C 59

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Jones +500 0.230 · 90.5 · 10.4% 9.1% 16.5% F B O C 59

· — Oneil Cruz COOL vs Smith +400 0.203 · 94.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi HOT vs Jones Edge +575 0.179 · 89.3 · 8.4% 8.3% 13.2% F B O D 49

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Jones Edge +850 0.135 · 88.7 · 5.8% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 41

· — Jared Triolo vs Smith Edge — 0.070 · 86.7 · 3.9% 12.5% 6.0% F B O D 30

· — Bryan Reynolds vs Smith Edge +525 0.162 · 91.0 · 8.4% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 46

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Jones Edge +750 0.187 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 46

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Jones — 0.122 · 87.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Jones Edge +750 0.122 · 87.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Smith +850 0.124 · 86.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

· — Jake Mangum COOL vs Smith Edge — 0.086 · 85.4 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 29

· — Nick Gonzales vs Smith Edge +850 0.086 · 86.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hagen Smith — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Grichuk Valdez Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Colson Montgomery +350 · 63

Esmerlyn Valdez — · 63

Brandon Lowe +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ +305 · 4 0.270 94.0 12.4% 35.8%vs RHP 401 18.9% 16.7% 37.5% 20

2 Colson Montgomery 63 C+ +350 COOL 7 0.222 88.7 10.0% 27.6%vs RHP 397 22.3% 33.3% 31.5% 24

3 Randal Grichuk 59 C — WARM 14 0.275 91.4 9.6% 21.4%vs RHP 390 13.9% 0.0% 29.0% 13

4 Miguel Vargas 59 C +500 COOL 15 0.230 90.5 10.4% 16.8%vs RHP 392 19.8% 9.1% 16.5% 35

5 Andrew Benintendi 49 D +575 HOT 33 0.179 89.3 8.4% 16.1%vs RHP 388 12.2% 8.3% 13.2% 29

6 Tristan Peters 46 D +750 WARM 42 0.187 87.6 6.9% 13.6%vs RHP 377 11.2% 0.0% 13.3% 32

7 Braden Montgomery 41 D +850 COOL 56 0.135 88.7 5.8% 18.5%vs RHP 395 7.1% 9.1% 10.2% 33

8 Sam Antonacci 39 D +750 COOL 62 0.122 87.3 6.4% 11.4%vs RHP 390 7.4% 0.0% 9.0% 36

9 Chase Meidroth 38 D — COOL 67 0.122 87.3 5.7% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.2% 0.0% 9.1% 30

vs Hagen Smith · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez 63 C+ — COOL 8 0.282 91.9 11.0% 36.0%vs LHP 395 20.0% 25.0% 25.7% 17

2 Brandon Lowe 55 C +400 COOL 18 0.220 91.0 8.3% 17.6%vs LHP 390 16.9% 22.2% 19.3% 29

3 Oneil Cruz 55 C +400 COOL 20 0.203 94.9 10.0% 40.0%vs LHP 413 21.6% 0.0% 16.0% 28

4 Bryan Reynolds 46 D +525 WARM 45 0.162 91.0 8.4% 15.8%vs LHP 410 10.6% 9.1% 8.1% 35

5 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +850 COOL 68 0.124 86.9 6.1% 8.3%vs LHP 395 8.6% 0.0% 7.2% 31

6 Jared Triolo 30 D — WARM 77 0.070 86.7 3.9% 5.6%vs LHP 409 2.5% 12.5% 6.0% 19

7 Nick Gonzales 30 D +850 · 78 0.086 86.0 4.2% 3.2%vs LHP 397 6.0% 0.0% 5.4% 31

8 Jake Mangum 29 D — COOL 80 0.086 85.4 3.4% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.2% 0.0% 5.7% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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