TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.34×

HOU @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 1:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 8 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:05p

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2:05p

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3:05p

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4:05p

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5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Cam Smith conv 22 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 33 · vs Javier → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 93

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●○○

2 Yordan Alvarez — C+ ●●●○○

3 Christian Walker — C ●●●○○

FADE Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 6

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — C ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 32.5% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.288 · 92.4 · 12.4% 33.3% 32.5% F B O B 76

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Wheeler — 0.185 · 89.1 · 8.5% 22.2% 22.7% F B O C 54

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.282 · 94.2 · 10.1% 15.4% 23.2% F B O C+ 68

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Wheeler — 0.198 · 89.0 · 7.5% 16.7% 18.3% F B O C 54

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Wheeler — 0.185 · 88.5 · 6.4% 15.4% 17.1% F B O C 50

· PHI Trea Turner vs Javier — 0.148 · 88.5 · 7.6% 16.7% 11.9% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.224 · 90.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Wheeler — 0.166 · 86.1 · 5.6% 15.4% 13.8% F B O D 46

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Javier — 0.143 · 90.5 · 7.3% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 48

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Wheeler — 0.153 · 85.5 · 5.3% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 43

· HOU Daulton Varsho vs Wheeler Edge — 0.136 · 86.8 · 6.6% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Javier Edge — 0.142 · 89.2 · 7.4% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.153 · 87.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Wheeler — 0.121 · 86.0 · 3.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 35

· PHI Rafael Marchan vs Javier — 0.068 · 83.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.152 · 89.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 49

· PHI Luis Arraez COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.113 · 86.3 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Javier Edge — 0.083 · 87.4 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Zack Wheeler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cristian Javier — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Smith Walker Peña Paredes Schwarber Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 76

Cam Smith — · 54

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.11× Wind 8 mph cross 87°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

1:05p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

2:05p

-2

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

3:05p

-2

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

4:05p

-2

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 87°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 68 C+ — COOL 3 0.282 94.2 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 403 22.4% 15.4% 23.2% 37

2 Cam Smith 54 C — COOL 21 0.185 89.1 8.5% 19.6%vs RHP 409 13.5% 22.2% 22.7% 26

3 Christian Walker 54 C — COOL 22 0.198 89.0 7.5% 23.5%vs RHP 393 17.0% 16.7% 18.3% 36

4 Jeremy Peña 50 C — · 26 0.185 88.5 6.4% 28.3%vs RHP 387 15.3% 15.4% 17.1% 38

5 Taylor Trammell 47 D — COOL 39 0.153 87.8 8.6% 18.4%vs RHP 413 11.4% 0.0% 12.3% 22

6 Isaac Paredes 46 D — COOL 42 0.166 86.1 5.6% 17.0%vs RHP 377 12.2% 15.4% 13.8% 37

7 Jose Altuve 43 D — COOL 50 0.153 85.5 5.3% 20.0%vs RHP 377 10.4% 8.3% 12.1% 38

8 Daulton Varsho 42 D — WARM 53 0.136 86.8 6.6% 11.1%vs RHP 388 7.5% 8.3% 9.9% 36

9 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 73 0.121 86.0 3.7% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 10

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 76 B — COOL 1 0.288 92.4 12.4% 42.6%vs RHP 403 24.3% 33.3% 32.5% 36

2 Bryce Harper 60 C+ — COOL 11 0.224 90.5 9.9% 34.8%vs RHP 402 17.7% 0.0% 16.5% 29

3 Trea Turner 50 C — WARM 28 0.148 88.5 7.6% 17.7%vs RHP 390 13.1% 16.7% 11.9% 42

4 Brandon Marsh 49 D — COOL 33 0.152 89.3 8.6% 17.9%vs RHP 391 10.9% 0.0% 9.4% 21

5 Alec Bohm 48 D — WARM 35 0.143 90.5 7.3% 13.3%vs RHP 394 10.5% 10.0% 10.8% 26

6 Bryson Stott 46 D — · 47 0.142 89.2 7.4% 9.3%vs RHP 393 7.4% 8.3% 7.7% 31

7 Rafael Marchan 38 D — · 63 0.068 83.2 4.9% 7.1%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0

8 Luis Arraez 36 D — COOL 71 0.113 86.3 3.1% 3.8%vs RHP 372 4.2% 0.0% 6.5% 42

9 Justin Crawford 34 D — WARM 75 0.083 87.4 3.4% 4.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 6.5% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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