Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-03T17:00:22-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-03
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +5.7 | +0.0 | 48% | 5 | 5 | #54 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +3.2 | +0.9 | 51% | 10 | 2 | #11 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Cal Quantrill | Splitter | +7.9 | +1.6 | 21% | 1 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Ernie Clement | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.9 | 51% | 2 | 2 | #88 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Michael McGreevy | Changeup | +9.1 | -0.7 | 20% | 3 | 3 | #21 | |
| · | George Springer | Cristian Javier | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.9 | 51% | 5 | 2 | #35 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.0 | 48% | 5 | 5 | #15 | |
| · | Heliot Ramos | Cal Quantrill | Splitter | +6.4 | +1.6 | 21% | 1 | 2 | #70 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +5.0 | -0.6 | 33% | 0 | 7 | #39 | |
| · | Jesús Sánchez | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.1 | +0.9 | 51% | 2 | 2 | #41 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Aaron Nola | Cutter | +8.0 | +2.7 | 8% | 6 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Michael McGreevy | Fastball | +5.9 | +0.4 | 25% | 15 | 6 | #5 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.9 | 51% | 1 | 2 | #106 | |
| · | Andres Gimenez | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -0.8 | +0.9 | 51% | 3 | 2 | #93 | |
| · | David Hamilton | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.0 | 48% | 3 | 5 | #110 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.3 | 36% | 12 | 3 | #4 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Michael McGreevy | Cutter | +7.4 | +1.1 | 11% | 1 | 2 | #21 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Justin Wrobleski | Slider | +4.6 | -0.3 | 30% | 2 | 4 | #44 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.0 | 48% | 2 | 5 | #45 | |
| · | Rafael Devers | Cal Quantrill | Cutter | +3.5 | +1.3 | 27% | 3 | 4 | #22 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.2 | -2.0 | 49% | 5 | 6 | #28 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.1 | +0.0 | 48% | 6 | 5 | #38 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.3 | 36% | 2 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | Brandon Valenzuela | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -1.5 | +0.9 | 51% | 2 | 2 | #51 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.0 | 49% | 6 | 6 | #62 | |
| · | Edmundo Sosa | Andrew Alvarez | Fastball | +3.8 | +0.4 | 28% | 3 | 1 | #83 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.0 | -2.0 | 49% | 0 | 6 | #104 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +1.8 | +0.3 | 36% | 5 | 3 | #61 | |
| · | Daulton Varsho | Cristian Javier | Fastball | -1.8 | +0.9 | 51% | 4 | 2 | #75 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Aaron Nola | Fastball | +2.4 | +3.0 | 24% | 4 | 8 | #2 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+35.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+24.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.