Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-26T11:01:05-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-26
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jackson Chourio | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +16.3 | +1.7 | 21% | 1 | 5 | #18 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +11.2 | +1.7 | 21% | 2 | 5 | #17 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +6.9 | +0.4 | 38% | 0 | 4 | #134 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +3.0 | -1.9 | 63% | 5 | 5 | #146 | |
| · | Chadwick Tromp | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.7 | 54% | 0 | 5 | #201 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.6 | +0.1 | 53% | 10 | 7 | #14 | |
| · | Tyler Tolbert | Framber Valdez | Slider | +13.9 | -0.7 | 5% | 1 | 0 | #195 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.8 | -1.9 | 63% | 5 | 5 | #56 | |
| · | Romy Gonzalez | Kevin Gausman | Slider | +9.0 | +3.6 | 10% | 1 | 5 | #176 | |
| 💥 | James Wood | Kohl Drake | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.9 | 48% | 11 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Kohl Drake | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.9 | 48% | 4 | 0 | #38 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.9 | 63% | 4 | 5 | #189 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.6 | +0.1 | 53% | 8 | 7 | #92 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.9 | 63% | 5 | 5 | #171 | |
| · | Starling Marte | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.7 | -0.4 | 46% | 1 | 4 | #219 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.7 | 54% | 9 | 5 | #11 | |
| · | Mike Trout | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +2.1 | +2.6 | 40% | 7 | 0 | #45 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.2 | -0.4 | 46% | 6 | 4 | #104 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +1.9 | +1.8 | 44% | 10 | 11 | #6 | |
| · | Zach Neto | Carson Whisenhunt | Fastball | +1.9 | +2.6 | 40% | 8 | 0 | #70 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Kohl Drake | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.9 | 48% | 5 | 0 | #119 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 53% | 5 | 7 | #147 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.9 | 63% | 9 | 5 | #9 | |
| 💥 | Willi Castro | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.1 | -1.9 | 63% | 3 | 5 | #174 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +6.5 | +1.7 | 21% | 0 | 5 | #30 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Braxton Ashcraft | Splitter | +10.7 | +0.7 | 5% | 4 | 0 | #51 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.1 | 53% | 7 | 7 | #88 | |
| · | Taylor Ward | Reynaldo Lopez | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.7 | 54% | 4 | 5 | #102 | |
| · | Masataka Yoshida | Kevin Gausman | Splitter | +3.7 | +0.4 | 38% | 0 | 4 | #180 | |
| · | Garrett Mitchell | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +6.4 | +1.7 | 21% | 1 | 5 | #43 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+32.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.4 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.