Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-10T17:00:54-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-10
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | Sean Burke | Changeup | +17.5 | +1.2 | 3% | 0 | 0 | #234 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Hunter Greene | Slider | +6.6 | +2.5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | #18 | |
| · | Dansby Swanson | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.5 | +5.1 | 53% | 6 | 1 | #34 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.3 | +5.1 | 53% | 0 | 1 | #118 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.1 | +5.1 | 53% | 3 | 1 | #18 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +0.9 | +5.1 | 53% | 4 | 1 | #24 | |
| · | Nicky Lopez | Hunter Brown | Sinker | +10.3 | -0.4 | 28% | 0 | 1 | #241 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +0.3 | +5.1 | 53% | 6 | 1 | #8 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Shane Bieber | Slider | +1.7 | +15.4 | 10% | 1 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Ian Happ | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +0.0 | +5.1 | 53% | 6 | 1 | #23 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +10.2 | +0.8 | 21% | 1 | 1 | #67 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Hunter Brown | Knuckle Curve | +10.9 | +0.6 | 19% | 1 | 0 | #116 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +9.9 | +2.4 | 16% | 1 | 0 | #50 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Hunter Greene | Fastball | -0.4 | +5.1 | 53% | 4 | 1 | #63 | |
| · | Jackson Merrill | Shane Bieber | Slider | +0.8 | +15.4 | 10% | 4 | 2 | #80 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Hunter Greene | Fastball | -0.5 | +5.1 | 53% | 3 | 1 | #137 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Jack Flaherty | Fastball | +4.0 | +0.0 | 49% | 10 | 4 | #45 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Shane Bieber | Slider | +0.4 | +15.4 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +4.7 | +0.6 | 42% | 9 | 10 | #11 | |
| · | Eugenio Suarez | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +7.7 | -0.7 | 33% | 0 | 6 | #103 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Jack Flaherty | Fastball | +3.2 | +0.0 | 49% | 10 | 4 | #7 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.2 | +1.6 | 53% | 3 | 3 | #89 | |
| · | George Springer | JP Sears | Changeup | +3.3 | +7.6 | 22% | 1 | 1 | #106 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Shane Bieber | Slider | -0.1 | +15.4 | 10% | 0 | 2 | #155 | |
| · | Josh Bell | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.6 | 53% | 5 | 3 | #36 | |
| · | Ty France | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +8.6 | +2.4 | 16% | 0 | 0 | #51 | |
| · | Ty France | Shane Bieber | Slider | -0.2 | +15.4 | 10% | 3 | 2 | #51 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Hunter Greene | Fastball | -1.6 | +5.1 | 53% | 2 | 1 | #211 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Hunter Greene | Slider | +2.9 | +2.5 | 40% | 5 | 0 | #8 | |
| · | Spencer Steer | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +7.0 | -0.7 | 33% | 0 | 6 | #42 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+28.4 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.