TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ MIA

Neutral air · 1.05×

SD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 1:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:40p

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2:40p

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3:40p

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4:40p

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5:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Ty France conv 35 · vs Junk ⟷ Joe Mack conv 36 · vs Buehler → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 82

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France — C ●●●●●

2 Jackson Merrill — D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado — C ●●●○○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 77

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joe Mack — D ●●●●●

2 Griffin Conine — C ●●●●○

3 Esteury Ruiz — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 12.0% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ HOT vs Junk — 0.268 · 92.5 · 9.4% 40.0% 29.2% F B O C 58

· MIA Griffin Conine HOT vs Buehler Edge — 0.260 · 90.4 · 11.8% 20.0% 32.4% F B O C 52

· SD Manny Machado vs Junk — 0.220 · 90.5 · 8.9% 20.0% 24.6% F B O C 52

· MIA Heriberto Hernández HOT vs Buehler — 0.241 · 92.5 · 10.7% 14.3% 15.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIA Joe Mack HOT vs Buehler Edge — 0.202 · 89.2 · 9.5% 50.0% 21.9% F B O D 49

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Junk Edge — 0.151 · 89.7 · 8.7% 33.3% 16.0% F B O D 44

· MIA Esteury Ruiz COOL vs Buehler — 0.231 · 86.6 · 8.5% 25.0% 23.8% F B O D 46

· SD Luis Rengifo vs Junk Edge — 0.072 · 88.3 · 6.0% 20.0% 12.9% F B O D 30

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.164 · 85.2 · 5.9% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 38

· SD Luis Campusano COOL vs Junk — 0.229 · 87.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 43

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.187 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 41

· MIA Kyle Stowers COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.199 · 91.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 44

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Buehler — 0.165 · 89.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.084 · 87.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 30

· MIA Graham Pauley vs Buehler Edge — 0.118 · 83.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 42.9% ← leak FB 38.3% OFF 18.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

13.1% 12.5% 7.7% 12.0% C 58 —

Manny Machado R

7.4% 13.0% 7.9% 10.8% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

9.2% 12.5% 6.3% 10.2% D 44 —

108

Luis Campusano R

5.9% 10.8% 20.0% 10.2% D 43 —

127

Gavin Sheets L Edge

4.5% 9.4% 2.0% 6.9% D 41 —

217

Luis Rengifo S Edge

7.5% 3.2% 5.6% 4.9% D 30 —

219

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.3% 5.7% 4.5% 5.5% D 30 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (42.9% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.0% BRK 29.0% OFF 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Griffin Conine L Edge

18.8% 13.0% 16.7% 16.4% C 52 —

Heriberto Hernández R

13.3% 13.5% 14.3% 13.5% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Joe Mack L Edge

10.5% 8.1% 16.7% 10.7% D 49 —

Esteury Ruiz R

11.1% 8.0% 0.0% 8.2% D 46 —

Kyle Stowers L Edge

12.0% 14.6% 2.9% 11.0% D 44 —

156

Otto Lopez R

10.3% 3.9% 2.1% 6.9% D 38 —

157

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.4% 5.9% 3.8% 4.1% D 38 —

206

Graham Pauley L Edge

5.4% 0.0% 6.2% 4.3% D 32 —

221

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Merrill Rengifo Conine Hernández Mack Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Ty France — · 58

Griffin Conine — · 52

Manny Machado — · 52

Joe Mack — · 49

Esteury Ruiz — · 46

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F retractable

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

1:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

2:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

3:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

4:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.05× 85°F, wind 6 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 58 C — HOT 16 0.268 92.5 9.4% 37.1%vs RHP 394 20.4% 40.0% 29.2% 31

2 Manny Machado 52 C — · 37 0.220 90.5 8.9% 30.0%vs RHP 397 20.2% 20.0% 24.6% 33

3 Jackson Merrill 44 D — WARM 96 0.151 89.7 8.7% 17.2%vs RHP 410 13.4% 33.3% 16.0% 31

4 Luis Campusano 43 D — COOL 108 0.229 87.3 8.6% 30.8%vs RHP 406 12.5% 0.0% 15.3% 9

5 Gavin Sheets 41 D — COOL 127 0.187 87.7 7.2% 30.0%vs RHP 397 11.1% 0.0% 13.5% 24

6 Luis Rengifo 30 D — WARM 217 0.072 88.3 6.0% 11.8%vs RHP 360 1.6% 20.0% 12.9% 19

7 Jake Cronenworth 30 D — COOL 219 0.084 87.9 6.4% 15.0%vs RHP 389 1.8% 0.0% 8.0% 22

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Griffin Conine 52 C — HOT 36 0.260 90.4 11.8% 53.8%vs RHP 408 13.3% 20.0% 32.4% 16

2 Heriberto Hernández 50 C — HOT 55 0.241 92.5 10.7% 16.2%vs RHP 412 11.4% 14.3% 15.1% 21

3 Joe Mack 49 D — HOT 58 0.202 89.2 9.5% 29.0%vs RHP 413 16.7% 50.0% 21.9% 14

4 Esteury Ruiz 46 D — COOL 77 0.231 86.6 8.5% 14.3%vs RHP 384 14.3% 25.0% 23.8% 10

5 Kyle Stowers 44 D — COOL 99 0.199 91.6 9.7% 22.0%vs RHP 396 10.7% 0.0% 11.8% 17

6 Otto Lopez 38 D — COOL 156 0.165 89.4 7.6% 12.5%vs RHP 402 8.0% 0.0% 9.8% 23

7 Liam Hicks 38 D — COOL 157 0.164 85.2 5.9% 22.0%vs RHP 378 15.1% 11.1% 9.8% 26

8 Graham Pauley 32 D — WARM 206 0.118 83.9 6.0% 4.2%vs RHP 362 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 1

9 Xavier Edwards 30 D — COOL 221 0.116 87.1 6.0% 3.4%vs RHP 396 5.0% 0.0% 5.9% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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