TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.25×

NYY @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 7:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:20p

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8:20p

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9:20p

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10:20p

+7 ↑

11:20p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Trea Turner conv 26 · vs Warren ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 21 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 85

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trea Turner — C ●●●●○

2 Alec Bohm +950 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +475 B ●●●○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 6

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt +850 C ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice +750 C+ ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham +950 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 18.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Warren — 0.144 · 88.9 · 7.0% 33.3% 18.8% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Sánchez Edge +850 0.231 · 86.5 · 9.8% 14.3% 27.1% F B O C 57

· NYY Ben Rice vs Sánchez +750 0.308 · 92.3 · 11.3% 18.2% 19.6% F B O C+ 68

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Warren Edge +475 0.298 · 93.3 · 11.6% 11.1% 24.1% F B O B 71

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Warren Edge +625 0.235 · 90.2 · 8.9% 11.1% 21.6% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Warren Edge +950 0.185 · 89.6 · 8.3% 14.3% 15.4% F B O C 54

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Sánchez +950 0.179 · 91.2 · 9.4% 18.2% 10.3% F B O C 51

· NYY Amed Rosario vs Sánchez Edge — 0.211 · 90.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 20.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Warren +950 0.146 · 90.6 · 6.2% 22.2% 14.1% F B O D 48

· NYY Max Schuemann COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.187 · 89.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.142 · 83.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 37

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs Sánchez Edge — 0.155 · 88.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Warren Edge — 0.145 · 89.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 45

· NYY Ali Sanchez COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.050 · 80.7 · — 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 25

· NYY Anthony Volpe COOL vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.073 · 87.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.087 · 86.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.6% ← leak OFF 38.7% BRK 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ben Rice L

19.1% 13.0% 11.2% 15.7% C+ 68 +750

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.0% 10.7% 5.1% 11.3% C 57 +850

Amed Rosario R Edge

9.5% 10.7% 12.0% 10.3% C 51 —

Trent Grisham L

12.0% 5.6% 9.5% 10.6% C 51 +950

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Max Schuemann R Edge

25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% D 48 —

132

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

5.3% 6.1% 5.0% 5.5% D 40 —

166

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 37 +950

183

Anthony Volpe R Edge

5.3% 8.3% 0.0% 3.7% D 35 +950

241

Ali Sanchez R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.5% ← leak BRK 23.6% OFF 10.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

18.0% 15.5% 26.9% 18.2% B 71 +475

Neutral · 3

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.4% 15.2% 7.0% 11.0% C+ 61 +625

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.4% 15.1% 2.8% 9.5% C 54 +950

Trea Turner R

8.6% 5.0% 0.0% 6.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

5.1% 4.8% 9.1% 5.4% D 48 +950

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.8% 4.9% 5.8% 7.1% D 45 —

189

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trea Turner — · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 7:20p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 82°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

7:20p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

8:20p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

9:20p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

10:20p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

85°F

11:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 82°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 68 C+ +750 WARM 3 0.308 92.3 11.3% 42.1%vs LHP 389 26.8% 18.2% 19.6% 22

2 Paul Goldschmidt 57 C +850 COOL 21 0.231 86.5 9.8% 34.6%vs LHP 390 18.0% 14.3% 27.1% 16

3 Amed Rosario 51 C — WARM 42 0.211 90.3 9.6% 17.4%vs LHP 392 10.7% 0.0% 20.4% 3

4 Trent Grisham 51 C +950 · 45 0.179 91.2 9.4% 11.8%vs LHP 390 11.4% 18.2% 10.3% 29

5 Max Schuemann 48 D — COOL 66 0.187 89.1 10.2% 12.5%vs LHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 16.9% 6

6 Jasson Dominguez 40 D — WARM 132 0.155 88.1 6.3% 15.4%vs LHP 371 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 28

7 Jose Caballero 37 D +950 COOL 166 0.142 83.8 5.5% 28.6%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 19

8 Anthony Volpe 35 D +950 COOL 183 0.073 87.9 5.5% 10.0%vs LHP 409 2.0% 0.0% 9.2% 8

9 Ali Sanchez 25 D — COOL 241 0.050 80.7 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 6

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 71 B +475 COOL 2 0.298 93.3 11.6% 42.0%vs RHP 403 24.7% 11.1% 24.1% 20

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ +625 COOL 12 0.235 90.2 8.9% 35.3%vs RHP 400 19.0% 11.1% 21.6% 21

3 Brandon Marsh 54 C +950 COOL 31 0.185 89.6 8.3% 24.1%vs RHP 393 13.8% 14.3% 15.4% 20

4 Trea Turner 51 C — HOT 43 0.144 88.9 7.0% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.3% 33.3% 18.8% 24

5 Alec Bohm 48 D +950 WARM 67 0.146 90.6 6.2% 18.9%vs RHP 396 12.4% 22.2% 14.1% 32

6 Bryson Stott 45 D — · 91 0.145 89.1 7.2% 8.5%vs RHP 393 7.4% 0.0% 9.7% 22

7 Justin Crawford 34 D — COOL 189 0.087 86.5 2.5% 5.7%vs RHP 382 2.8% 0.0% 8.4% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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