TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.26×

LAA @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 12 mph out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:05p

+11 ↑

2:05p

+12 ↑

3:05p

+12 ↑

4:05p

+13 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +13

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 31 · vs Soriano ⟷ Jo Adell conv 19 · vs Whisenhunt → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 95

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +425 C ●●●●●

2 Willy Adames +575 D ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge +525 C ●●●●○

FADE Carson Whisenhunt LHP · COL

leak 13

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.82 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jo Adell +425 D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Soriano Edge +425 0.232 · 92.3 · 9.5% 33.3% 28.3% F B O C 55

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Soriano Edge +525 0.206 · 92.6 · 10.3% 22.2% 23.9% F B O C 51

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Soriano +500 0.217 · 89.8 · 10.0% 22.2% 16.6% F B O C 51

· — Mike Trout COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +400 0.222 · 90.6 · 11.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Soriano +575 0.203 · 88.1 · 8.7% 33.3% 18.3% F B O D 48

· — Jo Adell COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +425 0.155 · 89.6 · 7.8% 22.2% 16.0% F B O D 43

· — Josh Lowe vs Whisenhunt — 0.152 · 89.2 · 8.0% 12.5% 12.3% F B O D 41

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Soriano +625 0.183 · 92.5 · 11.2% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 46

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Soriano Edge +1000 0.123 · 87.0 · 4.2% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 30

· — Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +750 0.146 · 89.1 · 7.1% 12.5% 5.6% F B O D 38

· — Zach Neto vs Whisenhunt Edge +390 0.211 · 89.5 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 48

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Soriano Edge +950 0.124 · 85.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 28

· — Jorge Soler vs Whisenhunt Edge +425 0.167 · 88.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· — Oswald Peraza vs Whisenhunt Edge — 0.133 · 87.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· — Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Whisenhunt — 0.112 · 87.1 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.124 · 86.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 24

· — Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Whisenhunt Edge +575 0.089 · 86.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.5% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.3% 8.3% 9.6% 11.3% C 55 +425

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.8% 6.2% 20.0% 13.2% C 51 +525

Casey Schmitt R

9.5% 17.8% 17.4% 12.5% C 51 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R

8.7% 10.1% 13.0% 9.5% D 48 +575

Heliot Ramos R

13.7% 17.7% 17.4% 15.6% D 46 +625

210

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 +1000

218

Drew Gilbert L Edge

1.9% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% D 28 +950

227

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.5% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.1% OFF 36.6% BRK 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R Edge

17.8% 14.3% 27.8% 19.1% C 51 +400

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R Edge

16.1% 8.8% 9.0% 12.9% D 48 +390

112

Jo Adell R Edge

8.4% 5.4% 8.9% 8.2% D 43 +425

126

Josh Lowe L

12.5% 8.3% 2.8% 9.1% D 41 —

127

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.6% 0.0% 10.5% 11.3% D 41 +425

153

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.8% 0.0% 7.8% 7.2% D 38 +750

174

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.5% 12.0% 7.5% 7.6% D 35 —

190

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

10.9% 12.5% 8.8% 10.3% D 33 +575

216

Nolan Schanuel L

2.6% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Whisenhunt's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Schmitt Adames Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +425 · 55

Bryce Eldridge +525 · 51

Willy Adames +575 · 48

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 12 mph out 69°F open

↑

12 mph · out

69°F

1:05p

+11

↑

14 mph · out

71°F

2:05p

+12

↑

15 mph · out

72°F

3:05p

+12

↑

15 mph · out

73°F

4:05p

+13

↑

16 mph · out

73°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 69°F, wind 12 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 55 C +425 WARM 25 0.232 92.3 9.5% 26.9%vs RHP 399 18.9% 33.3% 28.3% 23

2 Bryce Eldridge 51 C +525 WARM 45 0.206 92.6 10.3% 22.2%vs RHP 399 21.1% 22.2% 23.9% 20

3 Casey Schmitt 51 C +500 · 46 0.217 89.8 10.0% 21.2%vs RHP 396 18.2% 22.2% 16.6% 28

4 Willy Adames 48 D +575 COOL 66 0.203 88.1 8.7% 22.1%vs RHP 388 16.0% 33.3% 18.3% 20

5 Heliot Ramos 46 D +625 · 80 0.183 92.5 11.2% 20.0%vs RHP 407 11.9% 11.1% 9.6% 25

6 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D +1000 WARM 210 0.123 87.0 4.2% 9.6%vs RHP 378 5.3% 11.1% 7.6% 29

7 Drew Gilbert 28 D +950 WARM 218 0.124 85.6 3.7% 13.8%vs RHP 398 3.5% 0.0% 8.1% 24

8 Luis Arraez 24 D — COOL 227 0.124 86.9 2.0% 3.3%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 30

vs Carson Whisenhunt · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.82 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 51 C +400 COOL 43 0.222 90.6 11.6% 23.5%vs LHP 409 16.9% 0.0% 12.3% 21

2 Zach Neto 48 D +390 · 67 0.211 89.5 9.5% 19.2%vs LHP 402 17.3% 0.0% 11.1% 22

3 Jo Adell 43 D +425 COOL 112 0.155 89.6 7.8% 33.3%vs LHP 408 12.2% 22.2% 16.0% 23

4 Josh Lowe 41 D — WARM 126 0.152 89.2 8.0% 13.8% 396 10.9% 12.5% 12.3% 12

5 Jorge Soler 41 D +425 WARM 127 0.167 88.3 8.9% 11.8%vs LHP 398 12.5% 0.0% 7.9% 14

6 Vaughn Grissom 38 D +750 COOL 153 0.146 89.1 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 389 10.3% 12.5% 5.6% 24

7 Oswald Peraza 35 D — WARM 174 0.133 87.4 7.3% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.7% 0.0% 7.6% 8

8 Logan O'Hoppe 33 D +575 COOL 190 0.089 86.9 8.5% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.6% 0.0% 5.0% 16

9 Nolan Schanuel 29 D — COOL 216 0.112 87.1 3.7% 20.0%vs LHP 372 7.0% 0.0% 6.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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