TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.55×

ATL @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.29× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:35p

+12 ↑

2:35p

+12 ↑

3:35p

+13 ↑

4:35p

+13 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +13

Best of game Leody Taveras conv 14 · vs López ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 36 · vs Baz → edge: Drake Baldwin

ATTACK Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 90

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Leody Taveras +625 D ●●○○○

2 Gunnar Henderson +350 C ●●○○○

3 Pete Alonso +255 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 16

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Matt Olson +255 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ozzie Albies +475 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Drake Baldwin: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Drake Baldwin ✶ vs Baz Edge +290 0.213 · 91.5 · 10.4% 40.0% 31.0% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Baz Edge +255 0.263 · 92.6 · 9.9% 20.0% 32.3% F B O C+ 67

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Baz Edge +475 0.171 · 86.7 · 5.5% 30.0% 20.4% F B O C 50

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Baz +350 0.137 · 90.8 · 8.9% 20.0% 17.8% F B O C 50

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs López Edge +350 0.178 · 89.4 · 7.3% 10.0% 15.4% F B O C 54

· BAL Pete Alonso vs López +255 0.213 · 93.9 · 9.9% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Baz Edge +525 0.132 · 87.8 · 6.4% 20.0% 14.7% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs López Edge +625 0.119 · 87.0 · 5.9% 14.3% 13.1% F B O D 44

· BAL Taylor Ward vs López +500 0.107 · 89.4 · 6.6% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs López Edge +575 0.145 · 87.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 48

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Baz Edge +475 0.130 · 90.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser vs López Edge +425 0.126 · 87.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 49

· ATL Jim Jarvis vs Baz Edge — 0.160 · 88.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· BAL Chadwick Tromp COOL vs López +750 0.028 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Baz +750 0.147 · 86.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 40

· BAL Dylan Beavers vs López Edge +525 0.114 · 88.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Matt Olson L Edge

15.3% 10.3% 11.4% 13.4% C+ 67 +255

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.8% 20.0% 2.9% 15.0% C+ 64 +290

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.0% 1.1% 3.2% 4.4% C 50 +475

Austin Riley R

13.1% 11.1% 3.1% 11.2% C 50 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.5% 6.4% 2.7% 5.7% D 45 +525

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.9% 4.5% 7.4% 6.4% D 44 +475

Jim Jarvis L Edge

10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% D 44 —

129

Mauricio Dubon R

3.5% 6.6% 5.5% 4.7% D 40 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.5% BRK 42.2% OFF 3.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

14.5% 7.3% 15.2% 12.5% C+ 61 +255

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 5.4% 7.6% 6.9% C 54 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.9% 10.8% 2.6% 10.5% D 49 +425

Jackson Holliday L Edge

10.9% 3.7% 13.3% 9.3% D 48 +575

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.4% 9.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 44 +625

Taylor Ward R

7.8% 1.3% 2.9% 5.5% D 44 +500

108

Dylan Beavers L Edge

7.6% 3.6% 0.0% 5.5% D 43 +525

194

Chadwick Tromp R

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 32 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads López's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Albies Riley Smith Taveras

Legend

attack side — vs López fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Drake Baldwin +290 · 64

Matt Olson +255 · 67

Ozzie Albies +475 · 50

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.29× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F open

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

1:35p

+12

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

2:35p

+12

↑

7 mph · slight_out

81°F

3:35p

+13

↑

7 mph · slight_out

81°F

4:35p · peak

+13

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.55× 80°F, wind 8 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 67 C+ +255 COOL 3 0.263 92.6 9.9% 33.3%vs RHP 409 21.2% 20.0% 32.3% 27

2 Drake Baldwin ✶ 64 C+ +290 · 5 0.213 91.5 10.4% 30.9%vs RHP 403 20.5% 40.0% 31.0% 33

3 Ozzie Albies 50 C +475 COOL 51 0.171 86.7 5.5% 13.9%vs RHP 385 14.4% 30.0% 20.4% 31

4 Austin Riley 50 C +350 HOT 52 0.137 90.8 8.9% 17.5%vs RHP 405 8.7% 20.0% 17.8% 25

5 Dominic Smith 45 D +525 COOL 86 0.132 87.8 6.4% 14.9%vs RHP 390 7.8% 20.0% 14.7% 13

6 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D +475 COOL 94 0.130 90.3 6.7% 15.7%vs RHP 387 7.7% 0.0% 11.9% 6

7 Jim Jarvis 44 D — · 97 0.160 88.8 6.9% 11.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 27

8 Mauricio Dubon 40 D +750 COOL 129 0.147 86.5 5.8% 13.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 36

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +255 · 11 0.213 93.9 9.9% 27.0%vs RHP 401 18.3% 0.0% 21.2% 26

2 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +350 COOL 31 0.178 89.4 7.3% 17.9%vs RHP 389 16.7% 10.0% 15.4% 24

3 Colton Cowser 49 D +425 WARM 58 0.126 87.0 9.1% 18.2%vs RHP 417 13.7% 0.0% 11.4% 12

4 Jackson Holliday 48 D +575 COOL 64 0.145 87.6 8.5% 19.1%vs RHP 384 4.1% 0.0% 12.7% 17

5 Leody Taveras 44 D +625 COOL 93 0.119 87.0 5.9% 11.4%vs RHP 420 2.9% 14.3% 13.1% 16

6 Taylor Ward 44 D +500 · 98 0.107 89.4 6.6% 5.4%vs RHP 388 6.7% 10.0% 9.7% 26

7 Dylan Beavers 43 D +525 WARM 108 0.114 88.4 6.6% 9.5%vs RHP 406 2.3% 0.0% 10.1% 20

8 Chadwick Tromp 32 D +750 COOL 194 0.028 84.3 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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