TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.19×

AZ @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:35p

+6 ↑

2:35p

+8 ↑

3:35p

+6 ↑

4:35p

+5 ↑

5:35p

the 3:35p window peaks +8

Best of game Corbin Carroll conv 24 · vs Mikolas ⟷ Dylan Crews conv 27 · vs Drake → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Miles Mikolas RHP · WSH

leak 85

1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corbin Carroll +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Nolan Arenado +475 C ●●●○○

3 Tim Tawa +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Kohl Drake LHP

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dylan Crews +400 D ●●●●○

2 James Wood +290 C+ ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs Mikolas Edge +280 0.239 · 91.5 · 10.2% 20.0% 28.1% F B O C+ 61

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Mikolas +475 0.182 · 85.1 · 8.0% 22.2% 22.3% F B O C 52

· — James Wood vs Drake +290 0.276 · 95.1 · 14.4% 11.1% 15.7% F B O C+ 66

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Mikolas Edge +290 0.200 · 91.0 · 9.4% 11.1% 13.7% F B O C 54

· — Cj Abrams vs Drake +400 0.256 · 89.8 · 10.1% 0.0% 21.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Dylan Crews vs Drake Edge +400 0.153 · 90.6 · 9.5% 40.0% 14.1% F B O D 49

· AZ Tim Tawa HOT vs Mikolas +525 0.168 · 88.9 · 7.6% 16.7% 19.7% F B O D 48

· — Jacob Young vs Drake Edge +750 0.151 · 88.7 · 8.2% 14.3% 7.4% F B O D 42

· — Andres Chaparro COOL vs Drake Edge +425 0.232 · 91.0 · 11.5% 0.0% 20.9% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Mikolas +500 0.138 · 89.4 · 8.1% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Mikolas Edge +700 0.116 · 87.0 · 5.0% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· AZ Max Kepler COOL vs Mikolas Edge +390 0.170 · 88.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 45

· — Brady House vs Drake +500 0.172 · 89.0 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 45

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo vs Mikolas Edge +425 0.129 · 89.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Drake Edge +950 0.045 · 84.7 · 1.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.8% ← leak BRK 42.8% OFF 7.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.4% 14.9% 12.3% 12.2% C+ 61 +280

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.0% 8.1% 4.0% 10.3% C 54 +290

Nolan Arenado R

10.9% 2.4% 3.7% 7.4% C 52 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Tim Tawa R

5.9% 13.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 48 +525

Max Kepler L Edge

17.4% 8.3% 0.0% 10.4% D 45 +390

Gabriel Moreno R

7.9% 6.0% 9.7% 7.6% D 45 +500

102

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% D 43 +425

140

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 2.6% 2.9% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.8% usage) carries Mikolas's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.1% ← leak Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L

22.1% 21.9% C+ 66 +290

Cj Abrams L

12.2% 10.8% C 51 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.7% 9.5% D 49 +400

Andres Chaparro R Edge

12.5% 14.0% D 46 +425

Brady House

11.3% 10.6% D 45 +500

115

Jacob Young R Edge

8.9% 7.0% D 42 +750

228

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.4% D 22 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.1% usage) carries Drake's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Tawa Wood Crews

Legend

attack side — vs Mikolas fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Corbin Carroll +280 · 61

Nolan Arenado +475 · 52

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

2 mph · slight_out

82°F

1:35p

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

2:35p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

3:35p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

4:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 81°F, wind 2 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Miles Mikolas · RHP 1.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 61 C+ +280 WARM 8 0.239 91.5 10.2% 18.3%vs RHP 401 14.1% 20.0% 28.1% 25

2 Ketel Marte 54 C +290 COOL 27 0.200 91.0 9.4% 13.9%vs RHP 412 15.1% 11.1% 13.7% 29

3 Nolan Arenado 52 C +475 WARM 33 0.182 85.1 8.0% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.5% 22.2% 22.3% 27

4 Tim Tawa 48 D +525 HOT 60 0.168 88.9 7.6% 22.2%vs RHP 397 7.1% 16.7% 19.7% 29

5 Max Kepler 45 D +390 COOL 81 0.170 88.8 9.5% 13.3%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 22

6 Gabriel Moreno 45 D +500 · 83 0.138 89.4 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 399 8.3% 10.0% 10.5% 34

7 Adrian Del Castillo 43 D +425 WARM 102 0.129 89.0 7.8% 17.9%vs RHP 400 7.8% 0.0% 9.5% 8

8 Geraldo Perdomo 38 D +700 COOL 140 0.116 87.0 5.0% 9.5%vs RHP 386 6.7% 10.0% 8.4% 29

vs Kohl Drake · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 66 C+ +290 · 4 0.276 95.1 14.4% 38.1%vs LHP 412 27.9% 11.1% 15.7% 22

2 Cj Abrams 51 C +400 WARM 37 0.256 89.8 10.1% 17.4%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 30

3 Dylan Crews 49 D +400 WARM 55 0.153 90.6 9.5% 22.2%vs LHP 405 19.5% 40.0% 14.1% 16

4 Andres Chaparro 46 D +425 COOL 73 0.232 91.0 11.5% 20.0%vs LHP 424 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 17

5 Brady House 45 D +500 · 82 0.172 89.0 10.0% 18.2%vs LHP 391 13.8% 0.0% 11.2% 0

6 Jacob Young 42 D +750 WARM 115 0.151 88.7 8.2% 9.1%vs LHP 396 8.6% 14.3% 7.4% 19

7 Nasim Nunez 22 D +950 COOL 228 0.045 84.7 1.9% 7.1%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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