TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ STL

Playable air · 1.10×

CIN @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 5 mph out 99°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:15p

+6 ↑

2:15p

+6 ↑

3:15p

+6 ↑

4:15p

+6 ↑

5:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · +6 FIT

Best of game Nelson Velazquez conv 10 · vs Abbott ⟷ Jose Trevino conv 56 · vs Leahy → edge: Nathaniel Lowe

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 89

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nelson Velazquez — D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●○○○○

3 Jj Wetherholt — D ●○○○○

FADE Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 88

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jose Trevino — D ●●●●●

2 Nathaniel Lowe +400 C ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +305 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nathaniel Lowe: Match 25.0% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe ✶ vs Leahy Edge +400 0.223 · 89.0 · 10.7% 33.3% 25.0% F B O C 51

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Leahy Edge +305 0.223 · 94.1 · 12.1% 22.2% 17.5% F B O C 53

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.226 · 93.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 16.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· CIN Jose Trevino vs Leahy — 0.160 · 87.4 · 5.7% 100.0% 11.5% F B O D 37

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Leahy — 0.183 · 89.7 · 11.0% 12.5% 16.0% F B O D 45

· STL Nelson Velazquez COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.231 · 94.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 40

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Leahy +390 0.201 · 88.5 · 10.4% 0.0% 19.4% F B O D 41

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Leahy Edge +350 0.240 · 89.0 · 10.3% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 43

· CIN Noelvi Marte COOL vs Leahy +525 0.175 · 87.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 38

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Abbott — 0.143 · 90.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.131 · 89.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 31

· STL Alec Burleson vs Abbott — 0.183 · 91.7 · 9.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 43

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.120 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· STL José Fermín vs Abbott Edge — 0.120 · 85.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Leahy +625 0.119 · 89.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 33

· STL Blaze Jordan vs Abbott Edge — 0.122 · 89.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn vs Abbott Edge — 0.082 · 88.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes vs Leahy — 0.073 · 90.7 · 9.1% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 45.4% FB 41.5% OFF 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

10.6% 18.8% 3.8% 13.7% C 53 +305

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

13.6% 10.2% 11.8% 11.0% C 51 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Spencer Steer R

10.5% 12.8% 9.4% 11.7% D 45 —

103

Jj Bleday L Edge

9.1% 11.6% 6.0% 9.7% D 43 +350

122

Eugenio Suarez R

5.9% 12.2% 7.7% 10.5% D 41 +390

154

Noelvi Marte R

12.5% 1.7% 7.7% 5.7% D 38 +525

170

Jose Trevino R

7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% D 37 —

197

Dane Myers R

6.5% 6.0% 7.1% 6.3% D 33 +625

207

Ke'Bryan Hayes R

6.5% 9.1% 0.0% 7.8% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.3% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 17.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.1% 12.6% 16.1% 13.8% C 50 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

115

Alec Burleson L

11.4% 10.4% 11.4% 11.1% D 43 —

133

Nelson Velazquez R Edge

13.8% 9.1% 0.0% 11.6% D 40 —

194

Jj Wetherholt L

10.3% 2.6% 2.2% 7.3% D 33 —

198

Blaze Jordan R Edge

1.9% 11.1% 16.7% 6.6% D 33 —

210

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.0% 4.9% 7.3% 5.3% D 31 —

214

Pedro Pages R Edge

8.5% 2.6% 0.0% 5.4% D 30 —

226

José Fermín R Edge

2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% D 29 —

240

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.3% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.3% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Steer Trevino

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Nathaniel Lowe +400 · 51

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 5 mph out 99°F open

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

1:15p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

2:15p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

3:15p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

4:15p

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 99°F, wind 5 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 53 C +305 COOL 33 0.223 94.1 12.1% 18.8%vs RHP 397 17.1% 22.2% 17.5% 30

2 Nathaniel Lowe ✶ 51 C +400 WARM 40 0.223 89.0 10.7% 30.8%vs RHP 395 17.2% 33.3% 25.0% 16

3 Spencer Steer 45 D — COOL 86 0.183 89.7 11.0% 19.0%vs RHP 394 12.8% 12.5% 16.0% 23

4 Jj Bleday 43 D +350 · 103 0.240 89.0 10.3% 24.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 22

5 Eugenio Suarez 41 D +390 HOT 122 0.201 88.5 10.4% 27.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 18

6 Noelvi Marte 38 D +525 COOL 154 0.175 87.5 7.8% 33.3%vs RHP 407 11.9% 0.0% 10.5% 15

7 Jose Trevino 37 D — WARM 170 0.160 87.4 5.7% 28.6%vs RHP 392 14.3% 100.0% 11.5% 7

8 Dane Myers 33 D +625 COOL 197 0.119 89.9 8.1% 10.0%vs RHP 378 5.9% 0.0% 6.0% 13

9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 32 D — WARM 207 0.073 90.7 9.1% 3.9%vs RHP 365 5.9% 0.0% 5.4% 13

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C — COOL 49 0.226 93.7 10.0% 37.5%vs LHP 406 18.5% 0.0% 16.2% 30

2 Alec Burleson 43 D — · 115 0.183 91.7 9.0% 6.9%vs LHP 407 15.2% 0.0% 8.2% 33

3 Nelson Velazquez 40 D — COOL 133 0.231 94.6 9.1% 30.8%vs LHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 1

4 Jj Wetherholt 33 D — · 194 0.143 90.0 7.2% 10.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 31

5 Blaze Jordan 33 D — · 198 0.122 89.0 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 418 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 23

6 Ivan Herrera 31 D — COOL 210 0.131 89.0 6.2% 25.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 28

7 Pedro Pages 30 D — COOL 214 0.120 86.9 6.2% 0.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 1

8 José Fermín 29 D — WARM 226 0.120 85.6 3.8% 10.5%vs LHP 384 5.1% 0.0% 6.9% 20

9 Masyn Winn 26 D — · 240 0.082 88.0 4.9% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.1% 0.0% 5.7% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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