Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
30
Arsenal Edges
7
Edges That Hit HR
23%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-05-30
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 💥 | Jorge Mateo | Brady Singer | Fastball | +7.7 | +16.8 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #57 | |
| · | Braden Shewmake | Brandon Sproat | Changeup | +16.4 | +1.1 | 7% | 1 | 0 | #131 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Brady Singer | Fastball | +2.8 | +16.8 | 3% | 2 | 1 | #59 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Ben Brown | Knuckle Curve | +10.8 | +-3.2 | 37% | 0 | 0 | #148 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Jesús Luzardo | Sweeper | +8.9 | +-0.7 | 35% | 1 | 2 | #196 | |
| 💥 | Matt Olson | Brady Singer | Fastball | +2.2 | +16.8 | 3% | 7 | 1 | #5 | |
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Peter Lambert | Fastball | +10.3 | +-1.5 | 30% | 2 | 2 | #116 | |
| · | Jake McCarthy | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +4.6 | +0.9 | 46% | 0 | 6 | #144 | |
| 💥 | Luke Raley | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +2.8 | +-0.5 | 58% | 5 | 7 | #12 | |
| · | Braden Shewmake | Brandon Sproat | Sinker | +8.0 | +1.4 | 28% | 0 | 2 | #131 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Christian Scott | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.0 | 53% | 3 | 0 | #186 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +3.8 | +2.1 | 44% | 7 | 5 | #1 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +4.1 | +0.9 | 46% | 1 | 6 | #15 | |
| · | Josh Naylor | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +2.4 | +-0.5 | 58% | 4 | 7 | #208 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Brady Singer | Fastball | +0.8 | +16.8 | 3% | 4 | 1 | #85 | |
| · | Angel Martínez | Sonny Gray | Curveball | +8.9 | +1.9 | 19% | 3 | 1 | #135 | |
| · | Kyle Isbel | Kumar Rocker | Slider | +6.4 | +-0.2 | 38% | 1 | 1 | #225 | |
| 💥 | Julio Rodríguez | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +1.7 | +-0.5 | 58% | 4 | 7 | #38 | |
| · | Mike Yastrzemski | Brady Singer | Fastball | +0.4 | +16.8 | 3% | 1 | 1 | #39 | |
| · | Orlando Arcia | Mitch Keller | Sinker | +10.7 | +-0.5 | 18% | 0 | 0 | #269 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Anthony Kay | Slider | +11.1 | +3.0 | 2% | 5 | 0 | #21 | |
| 💥 | Jorge Mateo | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.6 | +1.3 | 47% | 0 | 6 | #57 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Kumar Rocker | Slider | +5.8 | +-0.2 | 38% | 1 | 1 | #223 | |
| 💥 | Matt Olson | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.4 | +1.3 | 47% | 4 | 6 | #5 | |
| · | Samuel Basallo | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +7.3 | +-1.4 | 34% | 1 | 0 | #55 | |
| · | J. P. Crawford | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.8 | +-0.5 | 58% | 3 | 7 | #41 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Peter Lambert | Changeup | +8.1 | +0.2 | 23% | 1 | 0 | #69 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +2.2 | +0.9 | 46% | 0 | 6 | #20 | |
| 💥 | Dominic Canzone | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.7 | +-0.5 | 58% | 3 | 7 | #31 | |
| · | Randy Arozarena | Ryne Nelson | Fastball | +0.7 | +-0.5 | 58% | 3 | 7 | #70 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+25.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+22.6 RV allowed
Simeon Woods Richardson
+20.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.