TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ NYY

Suppressed air · 0.98×

TB @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 8:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 6 mph slight_out 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

8:00p

+2 ↑

9:00p

+2 ↑

10:00p

+2 ↑

11:00p

+2 ↑

12:00a

conditions hold steady across the window · +2 FIT

Best of game George Lombard Jr. conv 44 · vs Martinez ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 19 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 38

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 George Lombard Jr. — C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●●●○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 8

0.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.90 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

3 Victor Mesa Jr. — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 31.5% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY George Lombard Jr. vs Martinez — 0.177 · 87.1 · 7.5% 66.7% 22.2% F B O C 54

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Martinez Edge — 0.269 · 91.9 · 9.9% 20.0% 31.5% F B O C+ 67

· TB Junior Caminero vs Fried Edge — 0.247 · 92.7 · 6.4% 20.0% 17.6% F B O C 55

· NYY Luis García Jr. COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.244 · 91.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 18.7% F B O C 58

· NYY Spencer Jones vs Martinez Edge — 0.183 · 94.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.6% F B O C 53

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Martinez — 0.184 · 90.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Martinez Edge — 0.145 · 89.3 · 7.3% 33.3% 16.3% F B O D 47

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Fried — 0.160 · 91.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· TB Victor Mesa Jr. COOL vs Fried — 0.238 · 89.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· TB Ryan Vilade COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.184 · 89.2 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 42

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Martinez Edge — 0.165 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 46

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Fried Edge — 0.162 · 85.8 · 3.4% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 34

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Martinez — 0.134 · 83.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Fried Edge — 0.153 · 90.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 35

· NYY Anthony Volpe vs Martinez — 0.091 · 87.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Fried — 0.139 · 86.2 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 35

· TB Liam Hicks COOL vs Fried — 0.150 · 84.6 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

· TB Taylor Walls vs Fried Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 2.6% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Max Fried — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Rice Jr. Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Martinez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

George Lombard Jr. — · 54

Ben Rice — · 67

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 8:00p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 6 mph slight_out 60°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

54°F

8:00p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

54°F

9:00p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

54°F

10:00p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

54°F

11:00p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

54°F

12:00a

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 60°F, wind 6 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.90 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 55 C — · 9 0.247 92.7 6.4% 29.6%vs LHP 413 24.5% 20.0% 17.6% 39

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 47 D — COOL 26 0.238 89.4 5.8% 16.7%vs LHP 401 15.4% 0.0% 12.3% 31

3 Jonathan Aranda 42 D — COOL 42 0.160 91.1 5.6% 10.0%vs LHP 390 12.8% 0.0% 12.7% 21

4 Ryan Vilade 42 D — COOL 43 0.184 89.2 4.7% 18.4%vs LHP 414 14.0% 0.0% 11.3% 20

5 Liam Hicks 36 D — COOL 57 0.150 84.6 3.4% 5.6%vs LHP 382 12.9% 0.0% 6.5% 26

6 Yandy Diaz 35 D — · 58 0.153 90.9 4.7% 18.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 39

7 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 59 0.139 86.2 3.5% 11.4% 385 8.4% 0.0% 6.7% 25

8 Jonny Deluca 34 D — · 60 0.162 85.8 3.4% 8.7%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 32

9 Taylor Walls 26 D — WARM 69 0.075 85.6 2.6% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 6.3% 14

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 67 C+ — · 2 0.269 91.9 9.9% 30.9%vs RHP 392 23.5% 20.0% 31.5% 33

2 Luis García Jr. 58 C — COOL 8 0.244 91.4 9.1% 31.4%vs RHP 398 13.8% 0.0% 18.7% 27

3 George Lombard Jr. 54 C — WARM 12 0.177 87.1 7.5% 23.8%vs RHP 382 28.6% 66.7% 22.2% 35

4 Spencer Jones 53 C — · 13 0.183 94.1 10.4% 15.7%vs RHP 403 12.9% 0.0% 17.6% 27

5 Trent Grisham 50 C — · 18 0.184 90.6 8.1% 21.1%vs RHP 388 13.2% 0.0% 15.3% 0

6 Austin Wells 47 D — WARM 25 0.145 89.3 7.3% 18.3%vs RHP 382 10.3% 33.3% 16.3% 16

7 Cody Bellinger 46 D — · 29 0.165 89.2 6.7% 14.1%vs RHP 377 12.4% 0.0% 11.1% 38

8 Jose Caballero 37 D — COOL 54 0.134 83.8 5.4% 22.2%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 20

9 Anthony Volpe 37 D — WARM 56 0.091 87.9 5.7% 5.0%vs RHP 381 3.1% 0.0% 7.5% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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