TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CWS

Rate Field is live · 1.27×

CLE @ CWS

Rate Field · 4:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

3:00p

+5 ↑

4:00p

+5 ↑

5:00p

+5 ↑

6:00p

+5 ↑

7:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game Patrick Bailey conv 23 · vs Newcomb ⟷ Randal Grichuk conv 31 · vs Espino → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 15

0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · leakiest side of this game

1 Patrick Bailey — D ●●●○○

2 Jo Adell — D ●●●○○

3 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

FADE Daniel Espino RHP · CLE

leak 3

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 25.9% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Espino — 0.279 · 91.3 · 10.2% 33.3% 27.7% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Espino Edge — 0.271 · 93.9 · 13.9% 20.0% 25.9% F B O C+ 69

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Espino — 0.224 · 90.1 · 11.1% 0.0% 34.1% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.205 · 88.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Newcomb Edge — 0.129 · 90.5 · 7.1% 33.3% 12.0% F B O D 41

· CLE Jo Adell vs Newcomb Edge — 0.160 · 90.4 · 7.7% 20.0% 16.6% F B O D 47

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Newcomb Edge — 0.139 · 87.0 · 4.3% 25.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Espino Edge — 0.151 · 85.7 · 10.4% 25.0% 8.3% F B O D 48

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Newcomb Edge — 0.211 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 23.5% F B O D 45

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Espino — 0.139 · 87.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 42

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Newcomb — 0.163 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Newcomb — 0.170 · 91.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Newcomb — 0.190 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Espino Edge — 0.172 · 87.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 44

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs Newcomb Edge — 0.133 · 88.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Espino Edge — 0.124 · 88.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Espino Edge — 0.118 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 38

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Newcomb — 0.067 · 83.9 · 1.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sean Newcomb — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Espino — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Adell Bailey Rocchio Murakami Vargas Grichuk Teel

Legend

attack side — vs Newcomb fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Randal Grichuk — · 62

Munetaka Murakami — · 69

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 3:00p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 7 mph out 76°F open

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

3:00p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

4:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

5:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

6:00p

↑

6 mph · out

42°F

7:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 76°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jo Adell 47 D — WARM 24 0.160 90.4 7.7% 32.6%vs LHP 418 13.7% 20.0% 16.6% 42

2 Nathaniel Lowe 47 D — WARM 27 0.190 89.6 7.4% 18.3% 395 14.4% 0.0% 10.9% 27

3 Angel Martinez 45 D — · 31 0.211 87.5 6.9% 24.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 31

4 Travis Bazzana 42 D — WARM 41 0.163 87.6 5.9% 6.2%vs LHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 13.2% 38

5 Patrick Bailey 41 D — WARM 46 0.129 90.5 7.1% 9.1%vs LHP 399 7.4% 33.3% 12.0% 17

6 Chase Delauter 40 D — · 49 0.170 91.4 6.5% 15.8%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 32

7 Brayan Rocchio 37 D — COOL 55 0.139 87.0 4.3% 12.2%vs LHP 381 8.7% 25.0% 9.7% 33

8 Jose Ramirez 34 D — · 61 0.133 88.6 5.2% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 43

9 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 70 0.067 83.9 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.0% 0.0% 5.5% 41

vs Daniel Espino · RHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 1 0.271 93.9 13.9% 37.8%vs RHP 401 19.0% 20.0% 25.9% 25

2 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ — COOL 4 0.224 90.1 11.1% 17.5%vs RHP 393 19.7% 0.0% 34.1% 38

3 Randal Grichuk 62 C+ — · 5 0.279 91.3 10.2% 22.2%vs RHP 391 15.6% 33.3% 27.7% 36

4 Colson Montgomery 55 C — COOL 10 0.205 88.6 10.7% 25.3%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 11.4% 20

5 Kyle Teel 48 D — · 23 0.151 85.7 10.4% 23.8%vs RHP 404 15.4% 25.0% 8.3% 22

6 Tristan Peters 44 D — COOL 38 0.172 87.5 7.1% 12.4%vs RHP 377 10.2% 0.0% 8.2% 24

7 Chase Meidroth 42 D — COOL 40 0.139 87.2 6.6% 13.6%vs RHP 382 8.6% 0.0% 14.5% 35

8 Braden Montgomery 39 D — · 52 0.124 88.9 6.5% 16.7%vs RHP 395 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 30

9 Sam Antonacci 38 D — WARM 53 0.118 87.5 6.9% 10.1%vs RHP 390 6.6% 0.0% 6.0% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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