TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.99×

MIL @ SD

Petco Park · 10:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:00p

-6 ↑

8:00p

-6 ↑

9:00p

-6 ↑

10:00p

-6 ↑

11:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · -6 FIT

Best of game Brice Turang conv 28 · vs Buehler ⟷ Manny Machado conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 79

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●●●●○

2 Christian Yelich — D ●●●○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●○○○○

FADE MIL Bullpen Proxy · MIL

leak 42

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — D ●●●●○

2 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis Jr. — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: Match 17.7% · 14D pace 40.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.218 · 92.1 · 10.7% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· SD Manny Machado ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.190 · 90.1 · 9.6% 40.0% 17.7% F B O D 49

· MIL Brice Turang vs Buehler Edge — 0.181 · 90.3 · 8.0% 40.0% 16.3% F B O D 46

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.142 · 88.9 · 8.9% 33.3% 8.8% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Proxy — 0.113 · 89.6 · 5.5% 25.0% 9.6% F B O D 32

· SD Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Proxy — 0.181 · 92.9 · 12.7% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 48

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Buehler — 0.195 · 91.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 49

· SD Austin Hays HOT vs Proxy — 0.120 · 87.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 31

· SD Ty France COOL vs Proxy — 0.206 · 91.5 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Proxy — 0.185 · 91.5 · 12.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 48

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.153 · 93.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· MIL William Contreras vs Buehler — 0.147 · 90.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· SD Luis Campusano COOL vs Proxy — 0.168 · 87.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 36

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Buehler — 0.132 · 89.2 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· SD Jake Cronenworth HOT vs Proxy — 0.094 · 87.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 25

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.089 · 85.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

· MIL David Hamilton vs Buehler Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· SD Samad Taylor vs Proxy — 0.092 · 85.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for MIL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Turang Yelich Machado Bogaerts

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 7:00p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph cross 84°F open

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

7:00p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

8:00p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

9:00p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

10:00p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

86°F

11:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 84°F, wind 5 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 52 C — COOL 15 0.218 92.1 10.7% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.9% 0.0% 14.4% 21

2 Jackson Chourio 49 D — · 22 0.195 91.6 10.1% 18.4%vs RHP 400 16.7% 0.0% 15.4% 33

3 Brice Turang 46 D — · 28 0.181 90.3 8.0% 24.7%vs RHP 406 11.8% 40.0% 16.3% 29

4 Garrett Mitchell 42 D — COOL 44 0.153 93.2 9.8% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.8% 0.0% 10.0% 23

5 Christian Yelich 41 D — COOL 48 0.142 88.9 8.9% 21.3%vs RHP 395 9.2% 33.3% 8.8% 22

6 William Contreras 40 D — · 51 0.147 90.3 8.4% 15.9%vs RHP 407 11.8% 0.0% 9.2% 32

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D — WARM 62 0.132 89.2 5.7% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 24

8 David Hamilton 29 D — WARM 65 0.091 86.8 5.3% 5.3%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 6.4% 17

9 Sal Frelick 27 D — COOL 68 0.089 85.7 4.3% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 6.5% 22

vs MIL Bullpen Proxy 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 49 D — COOL 30 0.190 90.1 9.6% 18.0% 396 18.1% 40.0% 17.7% 43

2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 48 D — · 33 0.181 92.9 12.7% 19.7% 408 12.0% 0.0% 17.2% 41

3 Jackson Merrill 48 D — WARM 34 0.185 91.5 12.4% 16.0% 411 15.7% 0.0% 10.0% 36

4 Ty France 45 D — COOL 45 0.206 91.5 9.1% 19.1% 390 14.4% 0.0% 11.5% 40

5 Luis Campusano 36 D — COOL 64 0.168 87.3 8.0% 13.1% 402 7.7% 0.0% 8.7% 24

6 Xander Bogaerts 32 D — WARM 66 0.113 89.6 5.5% 11.4% 402 8.0% 25.0% 9.6% 28

7 Austin Hays 31 D — HOT 67 0.120 87.5 4.1% 23.1% 364 3.8% 0.0% 13.0% 12

8 Samad Taylor 26 D — WARM 71 0.092 85.9 3.6% 8.3% 398 5.9% 0.0% 6.3% 30

9 Jake Cronenworth 25 D — HOT 72 0.094 87.2 3.9% 8.1% 377 3.6% 0.0% 6.9% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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