TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ ATL

Playable air · 1.08×

LAD @ ATL

Truist Park · 6:00p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

6:00p

+15 ↑

7:00p

+15 ↑

8:00p

+15 ↑

9:00p

+15 ↑

10:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +15 FIT

Best of game Andy Pages conv 32 · vs Mahle ⟷ Austin Riley conv 28 · vs Glasnow → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 76

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andy Pages — C ●●●●●

2 Mookie Betts — C ●●●○○

3 Will Smith — D ●○○○○

FADE Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 41

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Austin Riley — D ●●●●○

2 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

3 Drake Baldwin — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 25.7% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Andy Pages vs Mahle — 0.193 · 88.9 · 7.4% 40.0% 24.5% F B O C 54

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.251 · 92.5 · 10.8% 20.0% 25.7% F B O C+ 63

· — Mookie Betts vs Mahle — 0.197 · 90.2 · 7.3% 20.0% 19.0% F B O C 52

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Glasnow Edge — 0.175 · 91.5 · 10.3% 25.0% 12.2% F B O C 51

· — Max Muncy COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.238 · 89.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C 59

· — Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Mahle Edge — 0.236 · 93.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Michael Harris II vs Glasnow Edge — 0.195 · 90.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Glasnow — 0.145 · 91.3 · 10.2% 40.0% 16.1% F B O D 49

· ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. COOL vs Glasnow — 0.196 · 89.6 · 10.4% 0.0% 26.7% F B O D 49

· — Will Smith COOL vs Mahle — 0.166 · 89.1 · 9.2% 0.0% 19.4% F B O D 49

· — Teoscar Hernandez vs Mahle — 0.158 · 90.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 18.9% F B O D 45

· — Enrique Hernandez vs Mahle — 0.178 · 89.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 44

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.156 · 90.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 43

· — Kyle Tucker COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.151 · 88.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 44

· ATL Sean Murphy vs Glasnow — 0.118 · 87.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Glasnow Edge — 0.154 · 87.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· — Freddie Freeman vs Mahle Edge — 0.142 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Glasnow — 0.123 · 86.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Glasnow — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Jr. Riley Pages Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Andy Pages — · 54

Matt Olson — · 63

Mookie Betts — · 52

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 6:00p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph in 74°F open

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

6:00p · peak

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

7:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

8:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

9:00p

+15

↑

15 mph · out

51°F

10:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 74°F, wind 3 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 3 0.251 92.5 10.8% 26.3%vs RHP 406 22.7% 20.0% 25.7% 42

2 Michael Harris II 51 C — · 16 0.195 90.5 9.2% 24.3%vs RHP 394 17.7% 0.0% 13.9% 42

3 Drake Baldwin 51 C — · 17 0.175 91.5 10.3% 21.9%vs RHP 402 15.6% 25.0% 12.2% 40

4 Ronald Acuna Jr. 49 D — COOL 19 0.196 89.6 10.4% 25.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 35

5 Austin Riley 49 D — COOL 21 0.145 91.3 10.2% 18.6%vs RHP 411 10.1% 40.0% 16.1% 27

6 Mike Yastrzemski 43 D — COOL 39 0.156 90.4 7.5% 15.5%vs RHP 386 8.7% 0.0% 16.8% 27

7 Sean Murphy 41 D — WARM 47 0.118 87.8 8.3% 20.0%vs RHP 390 12.5% 0.0% 9.9% 21

8 Ozzie Albies 40 D — · 50 0.154 87.1 5.6% 12.8%vs RHP 388 12.4% 0.0% 9.5% 35

9 Mauricio Dubon 33 D — WARM 63 0.123 86.5 5.8% 9.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 41

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 60 C+ — HOT 6 0.236 93.3 10.6% 24.3%vs RHP 407 17.2% 0.0% 17.9% 13

2 Max Muncy 59 C — COOL 7 0.238 89.9 9.4% 25.4%vs RHP 410 21.4% 0.0% 18.3% 34

3 Andy Pages 54 C — WARM 11 0.193 88.9 7.4% 20.8%vs RHP 391 15.2% 40.0% 24.5% 13

4 Mookie Betts 52 C — · 14 0.197 90.2 7.3% 16.7%vs RHP 389 13.6% 20.0% 19.0% 45

5 Will Smith 49 D — COOL 20 0.166 89.1 9.2% 14.0%vs RHP 400 11.1% 0.0% 19.4% 27

6 Teoscar Hernandez 45 D — · 32 0.158 90.3 8.5% 15.8%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 32

7 Enrique Hernandez 44 D — · 35 0.178 89.0 7.5% 40.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 19

8 Kyle Tucker 44 D — COOL 36 0.151 88.5 6.6% 11.0%vs RHP 392 9.9% 0.0% 13.6% 43

9 Freddie Freeman 44 D — · 37 0.142 89.5 7.5% 13.2%vs RHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 9.4% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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