Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
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Batting
Pitching
Arsenal Edges · 2026-10-07
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jackson Chourio | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +12.7 | +2.9 | 9% | 1 | 3 | #20 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +2.7 | -1.2 | 61% | 2 | 1 | #50 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Sean Newcomb | Slurve | +8.4 | -0.4 | 31% | 0 | 2 | #68 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.2 | 61% | 13 | 1 | #1 | |
| · | Randal Grichuk | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +1.0 | -1.2 | 61% | 2 | 1 | #5 | |
| · | Kyle Teel | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.2 | 61% | 2 | 1 | #21 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.2 | 61% | 6 | 1 | #51 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.2 | 61% | 11 | 1 | #4 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +3.2 | -0.9 | 48% | 19 | 12 | #7 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Daniel Espino | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.2 | 61% | 5 | 1 | #36 | |
| · | Ronald Acuna | Tyler Glasnow | Knuckle Curve | +8.1 | -0.2 | 22% | 0 | 2 | #17 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +5.6 | -0.3 | 31% | 1 | 5 | #12 | |
| · | William Contreras | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | +2.9 | 9% | 0 | 3 | #49 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.9 | 48% | 12 | 12 | #12 | |
| · | Tommy Edman | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +4.8 | -0.3 | 31% | 1 | 5 | #45 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Sean Newcomb | Slurve | +4.2 | -0.4 | 31% | 0 | 2 | #59 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.9 | 48% | 9 | 12 | #34 | |
| · | Will Smith | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.9 | 48% | 3 | 12 | #18 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.9 | 48% | 9 | 12 | #35 | |
| · | Teoscar Hernandez | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +0.4 | -0.9 | 48% | 6 | 12 | #31 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +5.9 | +2.9 | 9% | 2 | 3 | #13 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +3.5 | -0.3 | 31% | 1 | 5 | #35 | |
| · | Garrett Mitchell | Walker Buehler | Knuckle Curve | +5.6 | +2.9 | 9% | 1 | 3 | #41 | |
| · | William Contreras | Walker Buehler | Cutter | +4.4 | +0.1 | 24% | 6 | 5 | #49 | |
| · | Cody Bellinger | Nick Martinez | Slider | +4.7 | +5.2 | 4% | 5 | 0 | #28 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Daniel Espino | Slider | +1.4 | +2.2 | 30% | 2 | 2 | #36 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Tyler Glasnow | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.3 | 35% | 8 | 5 | #15 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Daniel Espino | Slider | +1.1 | +2.2 | 30% | 4 | 2 | #38 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Daniel Espino | Slider | +0.9 | +2.2 | 30% | 3 | 2 | #4 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Sean Newcomb | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.1 | 39% | 10 | 3 | #47 |
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.