TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.15×

MIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph out 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+4 ↑

7:45p

+3 ↑

8:45p

+3 ↑

9:45p

+2 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +5

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 17 · vs Tidwell ⟷ Bryce Eldridge conv 20 · vs Matthews → edge: Bryce Eldridge

ATTACK Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 92

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Eldridge: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Bryce Eldridge ✶ vs Matthews Edge — 0.192 · 92.7 · 11.0% 20.0% 19.8% F B O C 53

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.225 · 92.1 · 10.6% 15.4% 17.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· MIN Josh Bell vs Tidwell Edge — 0.164 · 89.8 · 9.8% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 45

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Matthews Edge — 0.152 · 86.6 · 7.7% 12.5% 15.8% F B O D 40

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.128 · 87.6 · 4.9% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 32

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.177 · 88.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Tidwell Edge — 0.095 · 89.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Tidwell — 0.155 · 89.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 43

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Tidwell — 0.108 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 30

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Tidwell — 0.087 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.2% ← leak BRK 45.5% OFF 4.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 17.6% 10.8% 11.4% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 11.2% 6.4% 9.8% D 45 —

Royce Lewis R

12.8% 6.1% 13.2% 10.8% D 43 —

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.4% 0.9% 0.9% 4.1% D 41 —

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.7% 10.5% 5.6% 6.4% D 31 —

Luke Keaschall R

4.2% 2.4% 0.0% 3.3% D 30 —

Austin Martin R

3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.2% usage) carries Tidwell's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 34.0% OFF 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

10.8% 12.5% 12.8% 11.5% C 53 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Drew Gilbert L Edge

5.6% 8.3% 2.2% 5.7% D 40 —

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 3 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Tidwell fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Eldridge — · 53

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph out 60°F open

↑

10 mph · out

60°F

6:45p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

58°F

7:45p

↑

9 mph · out

57°F

8:45p

↑

9 mph · out

57°F

9:45p

↑

9 mph · out

56°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 60°F, wind 10 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 54 C — COOL 6 0.225 92.1 10.6% 20.8%vs RHP 390 17.4% 15.4% 17.9% 33

2 Josh Bell 45 D — WARM 13 0.164 89.8 9.8% 20.3%vs RHP 407 11.9% 16.7% 11.9% 36

3 Royce Lewis 43 D — COOL 16 0.155 89.9 10.3% 15.2%vs RHP 402 12.6% 0.0% 7.4% 31

4 Brooks Lee 41 D — COOL 19 0.177 88.1 6.3% 20.2%vs RHP 374 15.4% 0.0% 11.4% 36

5 Victor Caratini 31 D — COOL 30 0.095 89.5 7.9% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 16

6 Luke Keaschall 30 D — COOL 32 0.108 85.4 5.6% 9.5%vs RHP 378 6.6% 0.0% 5.8% 41

7 Austin Martin 28 D — COOL 36 0.087 86.8 5.4% 4.0%vs RHP 394 2.8% 0.0% 5.3% 10

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge ✶ 53 C — WARM 7 0.192 92.7 11.0% 18.6%vs RHP 402 17.9% 20.0% 19.8% 24

2 Drew Gilbert 40 D — WARM 21 0.152 86.6 7.7% 19.2%vs RHP 394 7.1% 12.5% 15.8% 15

3 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D — COOL 27 0.128 87.6 4.9% 10.3%vs RHP 381 5.7% 9.1% 7.1% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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