TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.88×

TOR @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph in 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:35p

-7 ↑

7:35p

-7 ↑

8:35p

-7 ↑

9:35p

-7 ↑

10:35p

best window is early — 6:35p at -6

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 37 · vs Yesavage ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 33 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 86

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

3 Samuel Basallo — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 13

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Yesavage — 0.238 · 94.0 · 9.6% 41.7% 31.6% F B O C+ 63

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Baz — 0.226 · 90.5 · 9.7% 41.7% 23.7% F B O C 58

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Yesavage — 0.244 · 91.4 · 9.2% 33.3% 27.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.186 · 90.5 · 8.8% 11.1% 12.2% F B O D 48

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Baz — 0.159 · 88.5 · 6.7% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.175 · 89.2 · 6.9% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.144 · 87.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.114 · 86.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.124 · 88.0 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.115 · 85.3 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Baz — 0.097 · 90.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Baz — 0.105 · 84.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Baz — 0.107 · 86.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.0% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.8% 9.1% 18.9% 13.5% C 58 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

George Springer R

5.7% 7.1% 8.3% 6.4% D 40 —

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.2% 10.9% 1.7% 7.0% D 33 —

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.5% 4.1% 5.5% 2.7% D 31 —

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.4% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% D 29 —

Myles Straw R

3.5% 0.0% 4.2% 2.9% D 29 —

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.0% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.6% ← leak OFF 28.8% BRK 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 17.6% 10.8% 14.3% C+ 63 —

Coby Mayo R

12.3% 15.2% 14.4% 13.4% C 59 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L Edge

13.6% 13.0% 9.2% 12.2% D 48 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.3% 6.7% 7.6% 7.3% D 44 —

Colton Cowser L Edge

11.0% 3.7% 13.7% 9.8% D 41 —

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.0% 0.0% 7.7% 3.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.6% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Yesavage fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Alonso — · 63

Kazuma Okamoto — · 58

Coby Mayo — · 59

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph in 75°F open

-6

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

6:35p · peak

-7

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

7:35p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

8:35p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

9:35p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

70°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 75°F, wind 7 mph ENE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 58 C — WARM 4 0.226 90.5 9.7% 26.7%vs RHP 400 19.7% 41.7% 23.7% 29

2 George Springer 40 D — COOL 20 0.159 88.5 6.7% 18.3%vs RHP 394 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 31

3 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — WARM 26 0.097 90.5 7.0% 9.1%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 32

4 Nathan Lukes 31 D — COOL 31 0.114 86.6 4.3% 15.0%vs RHP 382 7.4% 0.0% 7.5% 27

5 Andres Gimenez 29 D — COOL 33 0.115 85.3 4.8% 9.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 28

6 Myles Straw 29 D — COOL 34 0.107 86.1 4.5% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 18

7 Ernie Clement 28 D — WARM 35 0.105 84.1 3.8% 5.3%vs RHP 376 6.3% 0.0% 6.1% 36

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 2 0.238 94.0 9.6% 33.3%vs RHP 401 22.6% 41.7% 31.6% 29

2 Coby Mayo 59 C — WARM 3 0.244 91.4 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 411 18.2% 33.3% 27.1% 33

3 Samuel Basallo 48 D — COOL 11 0.186 90.5 8.8% 26.7%vs RHP 400 13.8% 11.1% 12.2% 20

4 Gunnar Henderson 44 D — COOL 15 0.175 89.2 6.9% 16.9%vs RHP 393 13.7% 8.3% 10.1% 29

5 Colton Cowser 41 D — COOL 18 0.144 87.9 7.9% 20.3%vs RHP 412 13.8% 0.0% 8.7% 13

6 Leody Taveras 33 D — COOL 25 0.124 88.0 5.0% 11.9%vs RHP 403 4.5% 0.0% 7.1% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.